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A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US

Author

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  • Richard J. Cebula

    (Armstrong Atlantic State University, Savannah (USA))

Abstract
Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, this study empirically examines, for theUS, the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficitand the ex ante real long term interest rate. The system includes personal federal income tax rates, the M2 money supply, the unemployment rate, an ex ante realshort term interest rate and net international capital inflows. To clarify thedeficit/interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primarydeficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. The ECM estimates in this study provide results that suggest a bi-directional relationship between theprimary budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate yield.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Cebula, 2002. "A contemporary investigation of causality between the primary government budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate in the US," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(223), pages 417-435.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:2002:44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bharat R. Kolluri & Rao N. Singamesetti & P. A. V. B. Swamy, 1988. "What do regressions of interest rates on deficits imply?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    8. Cebula, Richard J & Belton, Willie J, 1993. "Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates in the United States: Evidence for Closed and Open Systems Put into Perspective, 1955-1989," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(2), pages 188-209.
    9. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Interest Rates and Expected Future Budget Deficits in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 34-58, February.
    10. Cebula, Richard J. & Rhodd, Rupert G., 1993. "A note on budget deficits, debt service payments, and interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 439-445.
    11. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1989. "A Political Theory of Government Debt and Deficits in a Neo-Ricardian Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 713-732, September.
    12. Richard J. Cebula, 1985. "The ‘Crowding Out’ Effect of Fiscal Policy: Correction," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 435-437, August.
    13. Richard J. Cebula, 2000. "The Impact of Structural Budget Deficits on Commercial Bank Interest Rates: Reply," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(3), pages 195-198, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu Kerry, 2023. "The Effects of Foreign Participation on Chinese Government Bond Yields," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(2), pages 222-240, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget; Deficit; Interest Rates; Interest; Money Supply; Money; Supply; Tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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