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Rural to Urban Migration Is an Unforeseen Impact of Development Intervention in Ethiopia

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  • Mhairi A Gibson
  • Eshetu Gurmu
Abstract
Rural development initiatives across the developing world are designed to improve community well-being and livelihoods. However they may also have unforeseen consequences, in some cases placing further demands on stretched public services. In this paper we use data from a longitudinal study of five Ethiopian villages to investigate the impact of a recent rural development initiative, installing village-level water taps, on rural to urban migration of young adults. Our previous research has identified that tap stands dramatically reduced child mortality, but were also associated with increased fertility. We demonstrate that the installation of taps is associated with increased rural-urban migration of young adults (15–30 years) over a 15 year period (15.5% migrate out, n = 1912 from 1280 rural households). Young adults with access to this rural development intervention had three times the relative risk of migrating to urban centres compared to those without the development. We also identify that family dynamics, specifically sibling competition for limited household resources (e.g. food, heritable land and marriage opportunities), are key to understanding the timing of out-migration. Birth of a younger sibling doubled the odds of out-migration and starting married life reduced it. Rural out-migration appears to be a response to increasing rural resource scarcity, principally competition for agricultural land. Strategies for livelihood diversification include education and off-farm casual wage-labour. However, jobs and services are limited in urban centres, few migrants send large cash remittances back to their families, and most return to their villages within one year without advanced qualifications. One benefit for returning migrants may be through enhanced social prestige and mate-acquisition on return to rural areas. These findings have wide implications for current understanding of the processes which initiate rural-to-urban migration and transitions to low fertility, as well as for the design and implementation of development intervention across the rural and urban developing world.

Suggested Citation

  • Mhairi A Gibson & Eshetu Gurmu, 2012. "Rural to Urban Migration Is an Unforeseen Impact of Development Intervention in Ethiopia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-8, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0048708
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048708
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Brauw, Alan & Mueller, Valerie & Woldehanna, Tassew, 2011. "Insurance motives to remit: Evidence from a matched sample of Ethiopian internal migrants," ESSP working papers 25, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    4. Sanket Mohapatra & George Joseph & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Remittances and natural disasters: ex-post response and contribution to ex-ante preparedness," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 365-387, June.
    5. Bowles, Samuel, 1970. "Migration as Investment: Empirical Tests of the Human Investment Approach to Geographical Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(4), pages 356-362, November.
    6. Tim Dyson, 2011. "The Role of the Demographic Transition in the Process of Urbanization," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(Supplemen), pages 34-54, January.
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    1. Mussa, E.C. & Mirzabaev, A. & Admassie, A. & Rukundo, E.N., 2018. "Effects of childhood work on long-term out-migration decision in rural Ethiopia," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276004, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Gibson, Mhairi A. & Gurmu, Eshetu & Chua, Regina & Van Bavel, Hannelore & Myers, Sarah, 2023. "Abandoning female genital mutilation/cutting (FGMC) is an emerging but costly parental investment strategy in rural Ethiopia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    3. Habtamu Yesigat Ayenew, 2016. "Production Efficiency and Market Orientation in Food Crops in North West Ethiopia: Application of Matching Technique for Impact Assessment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-13, July.
    4. Stefano Mainardi, 2021. "Preference heterogeneity, neighbourhood effects and basic services: logit kernel models for farmers’ climate adaptation in Ethiopia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6869-6912, May.
    5. Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Wajid Alim, 2019. "Determinants of Rural-Urban migration: A Case Study of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(2), pages 105-116, June.
    6. Kosec, Katrina & Ghebru, Hosaena & Holtemeyer, Brian & Mueller, Valerie & Schmidt, Emily, 2016. "The effect of land inheritance on youth employment and migration decisions: Evidence from rural Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 1594, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Mengistu Dessalegn & Liza Debevec & Alan Nicol & Eva Ludi, 2023. "A Critical Examination of Rural Out-Migration Studies in Ethiopia: Considering Impacts on Agriculture in the Sending Communities," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    8. Kassahun Habtamu & Abebaw Minaye & Fantahun Admas & Messay Gebremariam Kotecho & Abera Tibebu & Yohannese Adigeh & Seleshi Zeleke, 2021. "Exploring Potential Intervention Strategies to Reduce Unsafe Youth Migration in Ethiopia: a Mixed Methods Study," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1285-1312, December.
    9. Hien, Nguyen Thi Thu, 2019. "Consequences of urban migration of adult children for the elderly left-behind in rural Vietnam," OSF Preprints zxyf8, Center for Open Science.
    10. Teshome Beyene Leta & Arega Bazezew Berlie & Mehrete Belay Ferede, 2021. "Effects of the current land tenure on augmenting household farmland access in South East Ethiopia," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, December.

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