[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0013448.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimizing Topological Cascade Resilience Based on the Structure of Terrorist Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Gutfraind
Abstract
Complex socioeconomic networks such as information, finance and even terrorist networks need resilience to cascades - to prevent the failure of a single node from causing a far-reaching domino effect. We show that terrorist and guerrilla networks are uniquely cascade-resilient while maintaining high efficiency, but they become more vulnerable beyond a certain threshold. We also introduce an optimization method for constructing networks with high passive cascade resilience. The optimal networks are found to be based on cells, where each cell has a star topology. Counterintuitively, we find that there are conditions where networks should not be modified to stop cascades because doing so would come at a disproportionate loss of efficiency. Implementation of these findings can lead to more cascade-resilient networks in many diverse areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Gutfraind, 2010. "Optimizing Topological Cascade Resilience Based on the Structure of Terrorist Networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-7, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0013448
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0013448
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0013448
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0013448&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0013448?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lindelauf, R. & Borm, P.E.M. & Hamers, H.J.M., 2008. "On Heterogeneous Covert Networks," Discussion Paper 2008-46, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Sergey V. Buldyrev & Roni Parshani & Gerald Paul & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2010. "Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7291), pages 1025-1028, April.
    3. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    4. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2007. "Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2061-2084, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bier, Vicki & Gutfraind, Alexander, 2019. "Risk analysis beyond vulnerability and resilience – characterizing the defensibility of critical systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 626-636.
    2. Yiping Fang & Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio, 2015. "Optimization of Cascade‐Resilient Electrical Infrastructures and its Validation by Power Flow Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 594-607, April.
    3. Annamaria Ficara & Francesco Curreri & Giacomo Fiumara & Pasquale De Meo & Antonio Liotta, 2022. "Covert Network Construction, Disruption, and Resilience: A Survey," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-43, August.
    4. Mary F. McGuire, 2014. "Pancreatic Cancer: Insights from Counterterrorism Theories," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(4), pages 265-276, December.
    5. Christos Ellinas & Neil Allan & Caroline Coombe, 2018. "Evaluating the role of risk networks on risk identification, classification and emergence," Papers 1801.05759, arXiv.org.
    6. Zhou, Jian & Coit, David W. & Felder, Frank A. & Wang, Dali, 2021. "Resiliency-based restoration optimization for dependent network systems against cascading failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    7. Matteo Cinelli & Giovanna Ferraro & Antonio Iovanella, 2017. "Resilience of Core-Periphery Networks in the Case of Rich-Club," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Fang & Chen, Xi, 2016. "Credit networks and systemic risk of Chinese local financing platforms: Too central or too big to fail?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 158-170.
    2. De Masi, G. & Giovannetti, G. & Ricchiuti, G., 2013. "Network analysis to detect common strategies in Italian foreign direct investment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(5), pages 1202-1214.
    3. Guido Caldarelli & Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Gabrielli & Luciano Pietronero & Antonio Scala & Andrea Tacchella, 2012. "A Network Analysis of Countries’ Export Flows: Firm Grounds for the Building Blocks of the Economy," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-11, October.
    4. Abhijit Chakraborty & Tobias Reisch & Christian Diem & Pablo Astudillo-Estévez & Stefan Thurner, 2024. "Inequality in economic shock exposures across the global firm-level supply network," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Lenzu, Simone & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2012. "Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4331-4341.
    6. L. Bargigli & G. di Iasio & L. Infante & F. Lillo & F. Pierobon, 2015. "The multiplex structure of interbank networks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 673-691, April.
    7. León, C., 2015. "Financial stability from a network perspective," Other publications TiSEM bb2e4e44-e842-45c6-a946-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Hayato Goto & Hideki Takayasu & Misako Takayasu, 2017. "Estimating risk propagation between interacting firms on inter-firm complex network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-12, October.
    9. Gräbner, Claudius & Heinrich, Torsten & Kudic, Muhamed, 2016. "Structuration processes in complex dynamic systems - an overview and reassessment," MPRA Paper 69095, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Heinrich, Torsten, 2016. "The Narrow and the Broad Approach to Evolutionary Modeling in Economics," MPRA Paper 75797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nadine Walters & Gusti Van Zyl & Conrad Beyers, 2019. "Financial Contagion In Large, Inhomogeneous Stochastic Interbank Networks," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(02), pages 1-26, March.
    12. Aymeric Vié & Alfredo J. Morales, 2021. "How Connected is Too Connected? Impact of Network Topology on Systemic Risk and Collapse of Complex Economic Systems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 1327-1351, April.
    13. Frank Schweitzer & Giorgio Fagiolo & Didier Sornette & Fernando Vega-Redondo & Douglas R. White, 2009. "Economic Networks: What Do We Know And What Do We Need To Know?," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04n05), pages 407-422.
    14. Aymeric Vi'e & Alfredo J. Morales, 2019. "How connected is too connected? Impact of network topology on systemic risk and collapse of complex economic systems," Papers 1912.09814, arXiv.org.
    15. Dror Kenett & Shlomo Havlin, 2015. "Network science: a useful tool in economics and finance," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 14(2), pages 155-167, November.
    16. Grilli, Ruggero & Tedeschi, Gabriele & Gallegati, Mauro, 2020. "Business fluctuations in a behavioral switching model: Gridlock effects and credit crunch phenomena in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Wang, Xin-Wei & Chen, Zhen & Han, Chao, 2016. "Scheduling for single agile satellite, redundant targets problem using complex networks theory," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 125-132.
    18. Yiping Fang & Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio, 2015. "Optimization of Cascade‐Resilient Electrical Infrastructures and its Validation by Power Flow Modeling," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 594-607, April.
    19. G. De Masi & M. Gallegati, 2012. "Bank–firms topology in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 851-866, October.
    20. Bier, Vicki & Gutfraind, Alexander, 2019. "Risk analysis beyond vulnerability and resilience – characterizing the defensibility of critical systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 626-636.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0013448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.