[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfstp/v42y1995i2p290-312.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Carmen M. Reinhart

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract
Devaluation is an integral part of adjustment in many developing countries, particularly relied upon by countries facing large external imbalances. A devaluation can only reduce trade imbalances if it translates to a real devaluation and if trade flows respond to relative prices in a significant and predictable manner. However, a recent strand in the empirical trade literature has questioned the existence of a stable relationship between trade flows and its traditional determinants. This paper re-examines the relationship between relative prices and imports and exports in a sample of 12 developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:42:y:1995:i:2:p:290-312
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3867574?origin=pubexport
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jonathan D. Ostry, 1988. "The Balance of Trade, Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Optimizing Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(4), pages 541-573, December.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
    4. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    5. Kiguel, Miguel A. & Ghei, Nita, 1993. "Devaluation in low-inflation economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1224, The World Bank.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    8. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
    10. Mohsin S. Khan, 1974. "Import and Export Demand in Developing Countries (Demande à l'importation et l'exportation dans les pays en développement) (La demanda de importación y de exportación en los países en desarrollo)," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(3), pages 678-693, November.
    11. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    12. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    13. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
    14. Marquez, Jaime & McNeilly, Caryl, 1988. "Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 306-314, May.
    15. Ceglowski, Janet, 1991. "Intertemporal substitution in import demand," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 118-130, March.
    16. Khan, Mohsin S. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 1992. "Response of the equilibrium real exchange rate to real disturbances in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1325-1334, September.
    17. Muscatelli, V. A. & Stevenson, A. A. & Montagna, C., 1994. "Intra-NIE competition in exports of manufactures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 29-47, August.
    18. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    19. Ogaki, Masao, 1992. "Engel's Law and Cointegration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1027-1046, October.
    20. Alexander Hoffmaister, 1992. "The Cost of Export Subsidies: Evidence from Costa Rica," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 148-174, March.
    21. Clarida, Richard H, 1994. "Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand for Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 298-308, March.
    22. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Relative Price Movements in Dynamic General Equilibrium Models of International Trade," Working Papers 92-25, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    23. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    24. Rittenberg, Libby, 1986. "Export growth performance of less-developed countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 167-177, November.
    25. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    26. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    27. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    28. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
    29. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 1992. "An empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tarrifs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-79, February.
    30. Marian E. Bond, 1987. "An Econometric Study of Primary Commodity Exports from Developing Country Regions to the World," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(2), pages 191-227, June.
    31. Kamin, S.B., 1988. "Devaluation, External Balance, And Macroeconomic Performance: A Look At The Numbers," Princeton Studies in International Economics 62, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    32. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
    33. International Monetary Fund, 1988. "The Balance of Trade, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Optimizing Framework," IMF Working Papers 1988/002, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Marquez, Jaime, 1988. "Cyclical and secular trade elasticities : An application to LDC exports," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 71-76, March.
    35. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    36. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    37. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," NBER Technical Working Papers 0083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    39. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hossain, Ferdaus, 1995. "Current account determination in the intertemporal framework: an empirical analysis," ISU General Staff Papers 1995010108000011939, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Bernardina Algieri, 2004. "Price and Income Elasticities of Russian Exports," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 1(2), pages 175-193, December.
    3. Carone, Giuseppe, 1996. "Modeling the U.S. demand for imports through cointegration and error correction," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-48, February.
    4. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    5. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
    6. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Mr. Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium: Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/090, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1997. "Determinants of Korean Trade Flows and their Geographical Destination," IMF Working Papers 1997/054, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Österholm, Pär, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Misspecified Systems –A Monte Carlo Study of Size Distortions," Working Paper Series 2003:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    9. Lanteri, Luis N., 2001. "Choques externos y reasignación sectorial de recursos. Evidencia para la economía argentina," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(271), pages 369-403, julio-sep.
    10. Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
    11. H. Bayram Irhan & Nur Dilbaz Alacahan & Levent Korap, 2011. "An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 14(1), pages 38-61, May.
    12. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Hongyi Li, 1999. "Quantifying the fiscal effects of trade reform," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2162, The World Bank.
    13. Tang, Chor-Foon & Lau, Evan, 2011. "The Behaviour of Disaggregated Public Expenditures and Income in Malaysia," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-13, March.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mohamad Husam Helmi, 2018. "Islamic banking, credit, and economic growth: Some empirical evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 456-477, October.
    15. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    16. Mizon, Grayham E., 1995. "A simple message for autocorrelation correctors: Don't," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 267-288, September.
    17. Arize, A. C., 1996. "Cointegration test of a long-run relation between the trade balance and the terms of trade in sixteen countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 203-215.
    18. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
    19. M.T. Alguacil & V. Orts, "undated". "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward FDI: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 50, FEDEA.
    20. Tang, Chor Foon, 2010. "The determinants of health expenditure in Malaysia: A time series analysis," MPRA Paper 24356, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:42:y:1995:i:2:p:290-312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.