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Evaluating Firm-Level Expected-Return Proxies: Implications for Estimating Treatment Effects
[The cross-section of volatility and expected returns]

Author

Listed:
  • Charles M C Lee
  • Eric C So
  • Charles C Y Wang
  • Wei Jiang
Abstract
We introduce a parsimonious framework for choosing among alternative expected-return proxies (ERPs) when estimating treatment effects. By comparing ERPs’ measurement error variances in the cross-section and in the time series, we provide new evidence on the relative performance of firm-level ERPs nominated by recent studies. Generally, “implied-costs-of-capital” metrics perform best in the time series, whereas “characteristic-based” proxies perform best in the cross-section. Factor-based ERPs, even the latest renditions, perform poorly. We revisit four prior studies that use ex ante ERPs and illustrate how this framework can potentially alter either the sign or the magnitude of prior inferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles M C Lee & Eric C So & Charles C Y Wang & Wei Jiang, 2021. "Evaluating Firm-Level Expected-Return Proxies: Implications for Estimating Treatment Effects [The cross-section of volatility and expected returns]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(4), pages 1907-1951.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:4:p:1907-1951.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaa066
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    Cited by:

    1. Acosta-Smith, Jonathan & Barunik, Jozef & Gerba, Eddie & Katsoulis, Petros, 2024. "Moderation or indulgence? Effects of bank distribution restrictions during stress," Bank of England working papers 1053, Bank of England.
    2. Kang, Jung Koo, 2024. "Gone with the big data: Institutional lender demand for private information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2).
    3. Alexandre Garel & Arthur Romec & Zacharias Sautner & Alexander F Wagner, 2024. "Do investors care about biodiversity?," Post-Print hal-04649052, HAL.
    4. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2022. "Dissecting green returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 403-424.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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