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Real Options and Risk Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Dirk Hackbarth
  • Timothy Johnson
Abstract
We examine the asset pricing implications of a neoclassical model of repeated investment and disinvestment. Prior research has emphasized a negative relation between productivity and equity risk that results from operating leverage when capital adjustment is costly. In general, however, expansion and contraction options affect risk in the opposite direction: they lower equity risk as profitability declines. The general prediction is a non-monotonic overlay of opposing real option and operating leverage effects. For parameters chosen to match empirical firm characteristics, the predicted non-monotonicities are quantitatively important, and are detectable in the data. The calibrated model implies that real option effects dominate operating leverage effects, and the average firm is best described by an increasing risk profile, a conclusion supported by conditional beta estimates. The baseline calibration helps explain the profitability premium in the cross-section, but makes the value puzzle worse. Panels with heterogeneous firms can deliver simultaneous profitability and value effects that match empirical levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Hackbarth & Timothy Johnson, 2015. "Real Options and Risk Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1449-1482.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:82:y:2015:i:4:p:1449-1482.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdv021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Barinov, Alexander, 2023. "Profitability anomaly and aggregate volatility risk," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Cujean, Julien & Bustamante, Maria Cecilia & Frésard, Laurent, 2019. "Knowledge Cycles and Corporate Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 14152, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.
    5. Kim, Yongjin & Kuehn, Lars-Alexander & Li, Kai, 2024. "Learning about the consumption risk exposure of firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Keloharju, Matti & Linnainmaa, Juhani T. & Nyberg, Peter, 2021. "Long-term discount rates do not vary across firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 946-967.
    7. Holger Kraft & Eduardo Schwartz & Farina Weiss, 2018. "Growth options and firm valuation," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 209-238, March.
    8. Luis García‐Feijóo & Benjamin A. Jansen, 2023. "International evidence on the association of leverage with stock returns and the value premium," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 315-341, May.
    9. Flor, Christian Riis & Petersen, Kirstine Boye & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2023. "Callable or convertible debt? The role of debt overhang and covenants," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Mortal, Sandra C. & Schill, Michael J., 2018. "The role of firm investment in momentum and reversal," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 255-278.
    11. Ho, Tuan & Kim, Kirak & Li, Yang & Xu, Fangming, 2023. "Can Real Options Explain the Skewness of Stock Returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Lifeng Gu & Dirk Hackbarth & Tim Johnson, 2018. "Inflexibility and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 278-321.
    13. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.
    14. Ho, Tuan & Kim, Kirak & Li, Yang & Xu, Fangming, 2023. "Does real flexibility help firms navigate the COVID-19 pandemic?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).
    15. Ang, Tze Chuan 'Chewie' & Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Pham, Thu A.T. & Zhong, Angel, 2021. "Firm efficiency and stock returns: Australian evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Zhang, Zhou, 2023. "Competition, investment reversibility, and equity risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
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    18. Matti Keloharju & Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Peter Nyberg, 2019. "Long-Term Discount Rates Do Not Vary Across Firms," NBER Working Papers 25579, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Chen, Jia & Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Hao, 2024. "Asset redeployability and firm value amidst the COVID-19 pandemic: A real options perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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