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Incomplete Information, Heterogeneity, and Asset Pricing

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  • Tony Berrada
Abstract
We consider a pure exchange economy where the drift of aggregate consumption is unobservable. Agents with heterogeneous beliefs and preferences act competitively on financial and goods markets. We discuss how equilibrium market prices of risk differ across agents, and in particular we discuss the properties of the market price of risk under the physical (objective) probability measure. We propose a number of specifications of risk aversions and beliefs where the market price of risk is much higher, and the riskless rate of return lower, than in the equivalent full information economy (homogeneous and heterogeneous preferences) and thus can provide an(other) answer to the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles. We also derive a representation of the equilibrium volatility and numerically assess the role of heterogeneity in beliefs. We show that a high level of stock volatility can be obtained with a low level of aggregate consumption volatility when beliefs are heterogeneous. Finally, we discuss how incomplete information may explain the apparent predictability in stock returns and show that in-sample predictability cannot be exploited by the agents, as it is in fact a result of their learning processes. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony Berrada, 2006. "Incomplete Information, Heterogeneity, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 136-160.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:4:y:2006:i:1:p:136-160
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbj001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2010. "Unbiased Disagreement in Financial Markets, Waves of Pessimism and the Risk-Return Trade-off," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 575-601.
    2. Rancière, Romain & Ouazad, Amine & Heipertz, Jonas, 2019. "The Transmission of Shocks in EndogenousFinancial Networks: A Structural Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 13855, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jonas Heipertz & Amine Ouazad & Romain Rancière & Natacha Valla, 2017. "Balance-Sheet Diversification in General Equilibrium: Identification and Network Effects," NBER Working Papers 23572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Raman Uppal, 2014. "Asset Prices with Heterogeneity in Preferences and Beliefs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 519-580.
    5. Berrada, Tony & Hugonnier, Julien, 2013. "Incomplete information, idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 448-462.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3495 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Daniel Andrei & Bruce Carlin & Michael Hasler, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Disagreement and Uncertainty About the Length of Business Cycles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 2900-2923, June.
    8. Michael Hasler & Mariana Khapko & Roberto Marfè, 2020. "Rational Learning and the Term Structures of Value and Growth Risk Premia," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 622, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    9. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 579-629, April.
    10. Tianhao Wu, 2024. "Consumption with Imperfect Income Expectations," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 16(1), pages 12-30.
    11. Jouini, Elyès & Marin, Jean-Michel & Napp, Clotilde, 2010. "Discounting and divergence of opinion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 830-859, March.
    12. Han, Tian & Peng, Qinke & Zhu, Zhibo & Shen, Yiqing & Huang, Huijun & Abid, Nahiyoon Nabeel, 2020. "A pattern representation of stock time series based on DTW," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    13. Li Lin, 2024. "Quantum Probability Theoretic Asset Return Modeling: A Novel Schr\"odinger-Like Trading Equation and Multimodal Distribution," Papers 2401.05823, arXiv.org.

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