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Ethnic Diversity and the Spread of Civil War

Author

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  • Natalija Novta
Abstract
This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the relationship between local-level ethnic composition and the spread of conflict. Cross-country literature on conflict finds that ethnic diversity, and ethnic polarization in particular, are associated with greater incidence of conflict. However, the question remains as to where within ethnically diverse countries conflict begins and where and how it spreads. To study this question, I present a model in which local ethnic groups’ decision to attack depends on three key variables: ethnic population shares, ethnic groups’ weapons ratio, and the share of co-ethnic successes in the battles that took place in the previous period. The model generates three predictions: conflict starts in ethnically homogeneous areas and only later spreads to ethnically heterogeneous areas; neighbor co-ethnics’ success increases subsequent probability of winning and may lead to attack; and greater ethnic diversity is associated with costlier conflict. I find strong support for these predictions using detailed municipal-level data on attacks and ethnic polarization during the initial spread of the Bosnian Civil War. Moreover, my conflict model is able to predict the sequence of actual conflict outcomes with reasonably high accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalija Novta, 2016. "Ethnic Diversity and the Spread of Civil War," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(5), pages 1074-1100.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:5:p:1074-1100.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jeea.12171
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rohner, Dominic & Mueller, Hannes & Schönholzer, David, 2017. "The Peace Dividend of Distance: Violence as Interaction Across Space," CEPR Discussion Papers 11897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Dziubiński, Marcin & Goyal, Sanjeev & Minarsch, David E.N., 2021. "The strategy of conquest," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. de Miguel-Arribas, A. & Morón-Vidal, J. & Floría, L.M. & Gracia-Lázaro, C. & Hernández, L. & Moreno, Y., 2024. "Contests in two fronts," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Nelly Exbrayat & Victor Stephane, 2024. "Does Urbanization Cause Crime? Evidence from Rural-Urban Migration in South Africa," Working Papers 2401, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    5. Dada, James Temitope & Ajide, Folorunsho Monsur & Arnaut, Marina & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2024. "On the contributing factors to shadow economy in Africa: Do natural resources, ethnicity and religious diversity make any difference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Hannes Mueller & André Groeger & Jonathan Hersh & Andrea Matranga & Joan Serrat, 2021. "Monitoring War Destruction from Space Using Machine Learning," Working Papers 1257, Barcelona School of Economics.
    7. Hodler, Roland & Schaudt, Paul & Vesperoni, Alberto, 2023. "Mining for peace," CEPR Discussion Papers 17807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Alacevich, Caterina & Zejcirovic, Dijana, 2020. "Does violence against civilians depress voter turnout? Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 841-865.
    9. Panza, Laura & Swee, Eik Leong, 2023. "Fanning the flames: Rainfall shocks, inter‐ethnic income inequality, and conflict intensification in Mandate Palestine," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 71-94.
    10. Štěpán Jurajda & Dejan Kovač, 2021. "Names and behavior in a war," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 1-33, January.
    11. Hannes Mueller & Andre Groger & Jonathan Hersh & Andrea Matranga & Joan Serrat, 2020. "Monitoring War Destruction from Space: A Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2010.05970, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    12. Ackermann, Klaus & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Smyth, Russell, 2024. "Estimating the relationship between ethnic inequality, conflict and voter turnout in Africa using geocoded data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D39 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Other
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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