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Geographic Natural Experiments with Interference: The Effect of All-Mail Voting on Turnout in Colorado

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  • Luke Keele
  • Rocío Titiunik
Abstract
We analyze a geographic natural experiment during the 2010 Colorado primary election in the USA, when counties in the state of Colorado had the option to have an all-mail election or retain traditional in-person voting on Election Day. The town of Basalt, in the southwestern part of the state, is split in half by two counties that chose different modes of voting. Our research design compares these two counties to understand whether turnout levels were altered by all-mail elections. Our analysis considers the possibility that social interactions may lead to spillover effects—a situation in which one unit’s outcome may be affected by the treatment received by other units. In our application, treated and control voters lived in very close proximity and spillovers are possible. Using the potential outcomes framework, we consider different estimands under the assumption that interference occurs only when treated individuals are in close geographic proximity to a sufficiently high number of control individuals. Under our assumptions, our empirical analysis suggests that all-mail voting decreased turnout in Colorado, and shows no evidence of spatial interference between voters.

Suggested Citation

  • Luke Keele & Rocío Titiunik, 2018. "Geographic Natural Experiments with Interference: The Effect of All-Mail Voting on Turnout in Colorado," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 64(2), pages 127-149.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:64:y:2018:i:2:p:127-149.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ify004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sobel, Michael E., 2006. "What Do Randomized Studies of Housing Mobility Demonstrate?: Causal Inference in the Face of Interference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1398-1407, December.
    2. Hong, Guanglei & Raudenbush, Stephen W., 2006. "Evaluating Kindergarten Retention Policy: A Case Study of Causal Inference for Multilevel Observational Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 901-910, September.
    3. Tyler J. Vanderweele & Guanglei Hong & Stephanie M. Jones & Joshua L. Brown, 2013. "Mediation and Spillover Effects in Group-Randomized Trials: A Case Study of the 4Rs Educational Intervention," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(502), pages 469-482, June.
    4. Brendan Nyhan & Christopher Skovron & Rocío Titiunik, 2017. "Differential Registration Bias in Voter File Data: A Sensitivity Analysis Approach," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(3), pages 744-760, July.
    5. Kousser, Thad & Mullin, Megan, 2007. "Does Voting by Mail Increase Participation? Using Matching to Analyze a Natural Experiment," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 428-445.
    6. Luke Keele & Rocío Titiunik & José R. Zubizarreta, 2015. "Enhancing a geographic regression discontinuity design through matching to estimate the effect of ballot initiatives on voter turnout," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(1), pages 223-239, January.
    7. Gerber, Alan S. & Green, Donald P. & Larimer, Christopher W., 2008. "Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 33-48, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Engelman & Won-tak Joo & Jason Fletcher & Barry Burden, 2022. "Health, Wealth, and Voting Trajectories in Later Life," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 77(4), pages 827-837.
    2. Jardim, Ekaterina & Long, Mark C. & Plotnick, Robert & Vigdor, Jacob & Wiles, Emma, 2024. "Local minimum wage laws, boundary discontinuity methods, and policy spillovers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric and statistical methods; spatial models;

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C99 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Other

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