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Can Uzbekistan Economy Retain Its High Growth Rate? Scenarios of Economic Development in 2015-2030

Author

Listed:
  • Popov, V.

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA, Moscow, Russia
    New Economic School (NES), Moscow, Russia)

Abstract
Uzbekistan in recent 10 years is an extremely successful economy - high growth (8% a year), low domestic and international debt, undervalued exchange rate, relatively even distribution of income, creation from scratch of competitive export oriented auto industry. It is important though to avoid "dizziness from success" and to envisage possible growth traps in the future. Two unfavourable scenarios are discussed - negative terms of trade shock due to the decline in cotton, gas and gold prices (a deterioration of the current account balance by 10 p.p. of GDP) and a decline in growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP), as well as possible government responses to these shocks, in particular, changes in industrial policy. It is argued that current industrial policy - support of heavy chemistry industries (production of synthetic fuel and polypropylene goods from natural gas) with relatively low level and growth rates of TFP - can be less efficient than previous successful support of auto industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Popov, V., 2015. "Can Uzbekistan Economy Retain Its High Growth Rate? Scenarios of Economic Development in 2015-2030," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 163-181.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2015:i:27:p:163-181
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    File URL: http://www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2015-27-163-181r.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Popov, Vladimir, 2019. "Successes and failures of industrial policy: Lessons from transition (post-communist) economies of Europe and Asia," MPRA Paper 95332, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uzbekistan; scenarios of economic development in 2015-2030; industrial policy; reaction to shocks; terms of trade; total factor productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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