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Extreme weather events and military conflict over seven centuries in ancient Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Tackseung Jun

    (Department of Economics, Kyung Hee University, Seoul 02447, South Korea;)

  • Rajiv Sethi

    (Department of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501)

Abstract
We explore the causal connection between weather and war by constructing and analyzing a dataset featuring extreme weather events and military conflicts involving a set of stable political entities that existed side by side over several centuries, namely, the three ancient kingdoms of the Korean Peninsula between 18 Before the Common Era and 660 Common Era. Conflicts are classified as desperate if a state experiencing the shock invades a neighbor and opportunistic if a state experiencing the shock is invaded by a neighbor. We find that weather-induced conflict was significant, but largely opportunistic rather than desperate. That is, states experiencing an adverse shock were more likely to be invaded, but not more likely to initiate attack. We also provide evidence that the channel through which weather shocks gave rise to opportunistic invasions was food insecurity, which weakened the power of states to repel attack. Since climate change is projected to give rise to an increased frequency of extreme weather events, these historical findings have contemporary relevance.

Suggested Citation

  • Tackseung Jun & Rajiv Sethi, 2021. "Extreme weather events and military conflict over seven centuries in ancient Korea," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(12), pages 2021976118-, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:118:y:2021:p:e2021976118
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    Cited by:

    1. Mengmeng Hao & Fangyu Ding & Xiaolan Xie & Jingying Fu & Yushu Qian & Tobias Ide & Jean-François Maystadt & Shuai Chen & Quansheng Ge & Dong Jiang, 2022. "Varying climatic-social-geographical patterns shape the conflict risk at regional and global scales," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.

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