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The joint dynamics of investor beliefs and trading during the COVID-19 crash

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Giglio

    (Yale School of Management, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138; Center for Economic and Policy Research, Washington, DC 20009)

  • Matteo Maggiori

    (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138; Center for Economic and Policy Research, Washington, DC 20009; Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305)

  • Johannes Stroebel

    (National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138; Center for Economic and Policy Research, Washington, DC 20009; Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012)

  • Stephen Utkus

    (Center for Investor Research, Vanguard, Malvern, PA 19355)

Abstract
We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February−March 2020 stock market crash induced by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as during the subsequent partial stock market recovery. We surveyed retail investors who are clients of Vanguard at three points in time: 1) on February 11–12, around the all-time stock market high, 2) on March 11–12, after the stock market had collapsed by over 20%, and 3) on April 16–17, after the market had rallied 25% from its lowest point. Following the crash, the average investor turned more pessimistic about the short-run performance of both the stock market and the real economy. Investors also perceived higher probabilities of both further extreme stock market declines and large declines in short-run real economic activity. In contrast, investor expectations about long-run (10-y) economic and stock market outcomes remained largely unchanged, and, if anything, improved. Disagreement among investors about economic and stock market outcomes also increased substantially following the stock market crash, with the disagreement persisting through the partial market recovery. Those respondents who were the most optimistic in February saw the largest decline in expectations and sold the most equity. Those respondents who were the most pessimistic in February largely left their portfolios unchanged during and after the crash.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2021. "The joint dynamics of investor beliefs and trading during the COVID-19 crash," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(4), pages 2010316118-, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:118:y:2021:p:e2010316118
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Weber & Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2023. "Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance," NBER Working Papers 31284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Wei, Xiong & Wei, Xiong, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 109301, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Gill, Andrej & Hett, Florian & Tischer, Johannes, 2022. "Time inconsistency and overdraft use: Evidence from transaction data and behavioral measurement experiments," Discussion Papers 18/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    5. Steven J. Davis & Dingqian Liu & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Stock Prices and Economic Activity in the Time of Coronavirus," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 32-67, March.
    6. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Cameron & Xiong, Wei A. & Xiong, Wei, 2022. "Taming the bias zoo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 716-741.
    7. Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2021/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    8. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2023. "The long-run risk premium in the intertemporal CAPM: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Sha, Yezhou & Zhang, Yong & Lu, Xiaomeng, 2022. "Household investment diversification amid Covid-19 pandemic: Evidence from Chinese investors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    10. Bender, Svetlana & Choi, James J. & Dyson, Danielle & Robertson, Adriana Z., 2022. "Millionaires speak: What drives their personal investment decisions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 305-330.
    11. Marco Pagano & Josef Zechner, 2022. "COVID-19 and Corporate Finance [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 849-879.
    12. Andrej Gill & Florian Hett & Johannes Tischer, 2022. "Time Inconsistency and Overdraft Use: Evidence from Transaction Data and Behavioral Measurement Experiments," Working Papers 2205, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    13. Barry, John W. & Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Ma, Yueran, 2022. "Corporate flexibility in a time of crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 780-806.
    14. Alt, Marius & Berger, Marius & Bersch, Johannes, 2023. "Investor responses to information updates on peer behavior and public investment policy: The case of green investments," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-024, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    15. Gill, Andrej & Hett, Florian & Tischer, Johannes, 2022. "Time inconsistency and overdraft use: Evidence from transaction data and behavioral measurement experiments," SAFE Working Paper Series 347, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    16. Weber, Martin & Kieren, Pascal & Mueller-Dethard, Jan, 2020. "Why so Negative? Belief Formation and Risk Taking in Boom and Bust Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14647, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Lhaopadchan, Suntharee & Gerrans, Paul & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2024. "Retirement savings behaviours and COVID-19: Evidence from Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    18. Rai, Anish & Mahata, Ajit & Nurujjaman, Md & Majhi, Sushovan & Debnath, Kanish, 2022. "A sentiment-based modeling and analysis of stock price during the COVID-19: U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
    19. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Broihanne, Marie-Hélène & Plotkina, Daria & Göritz, Anja S., 2023. "Determinants of individuals’ objective and subjective financial fragility during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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    Keywords

    beliefs; trading; COVID-19; surveys;
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