[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mth/ijssr8/v2y2014i2p179-199.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is It Rational to Order Ships When Freight Markets Are in Depression?

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandros M. Goulielmos
Abstract
Very high spot rates induce excessive orders this statement is tested. Time charter rates found not only to influence orders more than spot rates, but so does the price of shipbuilding. It is also shown that the surplus of supply over demand is a more accurate measure for shipowners in placing orders. This was first proposed by Koopmans (1939), but never tested statistically till this paper. Shipowners only remember well a depression that occurred in their life-time. They order ships during a depression to secure low prices, embody new technology (e.g. energy saving - ECO ships) or invest in promising ships (e.g. LNG, offshore units and large containerships). Some orders are placed at low freight rates. This phenomenon was first described by Zannetos (1966) (the Zannetos’ paradox). This paradox, however, contradicts maritime economists’ assumption of perfect foresight and a normal distribution for market disturbances. We take into account that a depression reduces capital cost (due to the lower new-building prices) and at the same time obliges shipowners to reduce operating costs. The previous boom (2003-2008) greatly helped subsequent orders in 2009-2014, as owners have built up sufficient liquidity. A depression is a period when, historically, shipowners have committed serious errors. It is rational to order ships when freight rates are high, but is it not suicidal to order them when spot, or time charter, rates, produce great losses? This is cleared out.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandros M. Goulielmos, 2014. "Is It Rational to Order Ships When Freight Markets Are in Depression?," International Journal of Social Science Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 179-199, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:mth:ijssr8:v:2:y:2014:i:2:p:179-199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ijssr/article/view/6315/5138
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ijssr/article/view/6315/5138
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mth:ijssr8:v:2:y:2014:i:2:p:179-199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Technical Support Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ijssr .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.