[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/khe/scajes/v2y2016i3p11-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Fiscal Policy Affects Non-Oil Economic Performance in Azerbaijan?

Author

Listed:
  • Khatai Aliyev
  • Orkhan Nadirov
Abstract
The role of fiscal policy in promoting economic growth has been subject to many studies since its suggestion by Keynes who stated expansionary/contractionary impact of public expenditures/taxes. In this context, effectiveness of fiscal policy use to develop non-oil sector in resource rich economies should be studied. This paper investigates short- and long-run effects of budget expenditures and taxrelated budget revenues (direct transfers from oil fund excluded) over non-oil GDP while controlling for oil price volatility and oil production in case of Azerbaijan. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing (ARDLBT) Approach to cointegration is employed for data covering 2000Q1-2015Q2. Estimation results theoretically consistent and statistically significant long-run effects of both budget expenditures and tax-related budget revenues. However, in the short-run, the effects are contrary to the theoretical expectations. Findings are useful for Azerbaijan fiscal policy makers especially in the current complicated nature of economic processes in the economy due to oil related challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Khatai Aliyev & Orkhan Nadirov, 2016. "How Fiscal Policy Affects Non-Oil Economic Performance in Azerbaijan?," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 2(3), pages 11-29, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:khe:scajes:v:2:y:2016:i:3:p:11-29
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ajes.ro/wp-content/uploads/AJES_article_1_63.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ajes.ro/wp-content/uploads/AJES_article_1_63.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Samad Bashirli & Ilkin Sabiroglu, 2013. "Testing Wagner’s Law in an Oil-Exporting Economy: the Case of Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(3), pages 295-307, November.
    2. Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
    3. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    4. Vito Tanzi & Howell H. Zee, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 179-209, June.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Khatai ALIYEV & Elchin SULEYMANOV, 2015. "Macroeconomic Analysis and Graphical Interpretation of Azerbaijan Economy in 1991-2012," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(1), pages 40-49.
    8. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    9. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    10. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2010. "Income distribution determinants and public spending efficiency," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 8(3), pages 367-389, September.
    11. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    12. Hasanov, Fakhri & Mammadov, Fuad, 2010. "The Role of the Fiscal Policy in the Development of the Non-Resource," MPRA Paper 65571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    15. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Swaroop, Vinaya & Heng-fu, Zou, 1996. "The composition of public expenditure and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 313-344, April.
    16. Basil Dalamagas, 2000. "Public sector and economic growth: the Greek experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 277-288.
    17. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    18. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    19. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
    20. Michael Sturm & François Gurtner & Juan Gonzalez Alegre, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries – a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    21. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Impact of Government Expenditure on Growth: The Case of Azerbaijan," IMF Working Papers 2008/115, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Hasanov Fakhri, 2011. "Dutch Disease and Azerbaijan Economy," EERC Working Paper Series 11/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    23. Frimpong, Joseph Magnus & Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu, 2006. "Bounds testing approach: an examination of foreign direct investment, trade, and growth relationships," MPRA Paper 352, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 2006.
    24. Henrekson, Magnus, 1993. "Wagner's Law--A Spurious Relationship?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 406-415.
    25. Clement A.U. Ighodaro & Dickson E. Oriakhi, 2010. "Does The Relationship Between Government Expenditure And Economic Growth Follow Wagner’s Law In Nigeria?," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(2), pages 185-198.
    26. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    27. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    28. Sturm, Michael & Gurtner, François & González Alegre, Juan, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries: a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    29. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2005. "Public sector efficiency: An international comparison," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 321-347, June.
    30. Sakineh Sojoodi & Fakhri Mohseni Zonuzi & Nasim Mehin Aslani Nia, 2012. "The Role of Infrastructure in Promoting Economic Growth in Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 17(2), pages 111-132, spring.
    31. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2006. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: From Dependence to Diversification," Springer Books, in: Harry G. Broadman & Tiiu Paas & Paul J.J. Welfens (ed.), Economic Liberalization and Integration Policy, pages 201-231, Springer.
    32. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    33. Jean Baldwin Grossman, 1983. "The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Other Wages," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(3), pages 359-378.
    34. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    35. Mr. Qing Wang & Mr. Ugo Fasano-Filho, 2001. "Fiscal Expenditure Policy and Non-Oil Economic Growth: Evidence from GCC Countries," IMF Working Papers 2001/195, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Gerald Scully, 1989. "The size of the state, economic growth and the efficient utilization of national resources," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 149-164, November.
    37. Landau, Daniel, 1986. "Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 35-75, October.
    38. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    39. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khatai Aliyev & Altay Ismayilov & Ilkin Gasimov, 2019. "Modelling Elasticity of Non-Oil Tax Revenues to Oil Price Changes: is There U-Shaped Association? Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 799-810.
    2. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Sabuhi Yusifov & Khatai Aliyev & Samra Talishinskaya, 2019. "The role of social and physical infrastructure spending in tradable and non-tradable growth," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    3. Richardson Kojo Edeme & Clifford Nworah Obiayo, 2017. "Analysis of the Responsiveness of Non-Oil Exports to Fiscal and Monetary Policy Actions," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(3), pages 92-101, September.
    4. Khatai Aliyev & Ilkin Gasimov, 2018. "Fiscal policy implementation in Azerbaijan before, during and after the oil boom," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(1), March.
    5. Fakhri Hasanov & Fuad Mammadov & Nayef Al-Musehel, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    6. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2018. "De-Industrialization Patterns of Azerbaijan: Potential Outcomes of Dutch Disease Syndrome," EconStor Preprints 227733, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Jeyhun A. Abbasov & Khatai Aliyev, 2018. "Testing Wagner's Law and Keynesian Hypothesis in Selected Post-Soviet Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(5), pages 1227-1237.
    8. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    9. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2019. "The role of spending on education and science in sustainable development," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(2), pages 1704-1727, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Sabuhi Yusifov & Khatai Aliyev & Samra Talishinskaya, 2019. "The role of social and physical infrastructure spending in tradable and non-tradable growth," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    2. Khatai Aliyev & Bruce Dehning & Orkhan Nadirov, 2016. "Modelling the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Gdp in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(6), pages 1869-1878.
    3. Khatai Aliyev & Ilkin Gasimov, 2018. "Fiscal policy implementation in Azerbaijan before, during and after the oil boom," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(1), March.
    4. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Khatai Aliyev & Ceyhun Mikayilov, 2016. "Does the Budget Expenditure Composition Matter for Long-Run Economic Growth in a Resource Rich Country? Evidence from Azerbaijan," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 2(2), pages 147-168, June.
    7. Ibrar Hussain & Zahoor Khan & Muhmmad Rafiq, 2017. "Compositional Changes in Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Pakistan," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Ayşegül Durucan, 2023. "New insights into the growth-maximizing size of government: evidence and implications for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2243-2296, August.
    9. Arawatari, Ryo & Hori, Takeo & Mino, Kazuo, 2023. "Government expenditure and economic growth: A heterogeneous-agents approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Fakhri Hasanov & Fuad Mammadov & Nayef Al-Musehel, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    12. Fakhri Hasanov & Jeyhun Mikayilov & Cihan Bulut & Elchin Suleymanov & Fuzuli Aliyev, 2017. "The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, April.
    13. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2015.06, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    14. Halkos, George & Paizanos, Epameinondas, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic performance: A review of the theoretical and empirical literature," MPRA Paper 67737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bashir Olayinka Kolawole, 2016. "Government Spending and Inclusive-Growth Relationship in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 19(2), pages 33-56, November.
    16. Hasanov, Fakhri & Huseynov, Fariz, 2013. "Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 597-610.
    17. Ryo Arawatari & Takeo Hori & Kazuo Mino, 2020. "Productive government expenditure and economic growth in a heterogeneous-agents model," KIER Working Papers 1044, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    18. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    19. Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Norman Gemmell, 2001. "Fiscal Policy in a Growth Framework," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-84, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; non-oil GDP; budget expenditures; tax revenues; Azerbaijan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:khe:scajes:v:2:y:2016:i:3:p:11-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adi Sava (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ffucdro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.