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Idiosyncratic consumption risk and predictability of the carry trade premium: Euro-Area evidence

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  • Thomas Nitschka
Abstract
The failure to empirically prove uncovered interest rate parity conditions seems to be related to the presence of risk premia on foreign currencies. Recent studies suggest that either consumption- or currency-return-based pricing factors explain the cross section of foreign currency portfolio returns. The contribution of this paper is twofold. It first shows that the return-based explanation applies to foreign currency portfolios built from the perspective of a Euro-Area investor. Second, the main results of this paper suggest that the decisive pricing factor, the so-called carry trade premium, mirrors business-cycle-related risks. Times of relatively large uninsured Euro-Area consumption growth risk are associated with an expected increase of the carry trade premium. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Nitschka, 2010. "Idiosyncratic consumption risk and predictability of the carry trade premium: Euro-Area evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 24(1), pages 49-65, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:24:y:2010:i:1:p:49-65
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-009-0119-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
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    6. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2010. "How Much Does Household Collateral Constrain Regional Risk Sharing?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 265-294, April.
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    8. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Nitschka, 2009. "Momentum in stock market returns, risk premia on foreign currencies and international financial integration," IEW - Working Papers 405, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption risk sharing; Foreign currency returns; Return predictability; Uncovered interest rate parity; F31; G10; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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