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Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts : Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters

Author

Listed:
  • Döpke Jörg

    (Hochschule Merseburg, Merseburg, Germany)

  • Fritsche Ulrich

    (Department Socioeconomics, Ulrich Fritsche, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany)

  • Waldhof Gabi

    (Martin-Luther-Unversität Halle/Wittenberg, Halle, Germany)

Abstract
We report results of a survey among active forecasters of the German business cycle. Using data for 82 respondents from 37 different institutions, we investigate what models and theories forecasters subscribe to and find that they are pronounced conservative in the sense that they overwhelmingly rely on methods and theories that have been well-established for a long time, while more recent approaches are relatively unimportant for the practice of business cycle forecasting. DSGE models are mostly used in public institutions. In line with findings in the literature there are tendencies of “leaning towards consensus” (especially for public institutions) and “sticky adjustment of forecasts” with regard to new information. A stable relationship between preferred theories and methods and forecast accuracy cannot be established.

Suggested Citation

  • Döpke Jörg & Fritsche Ulrich & Waldhof Gabi, 2019. "Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts : Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(2), pages 203-241, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:239:y:2019:i:2:p:203-241:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2018-0018
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    Cited by:

    1. Döpke Jörg & Fritsche Ulrich & Waldhof Gabi, 2019. "Theories, Techniques and the Formation of German Business Cycle Forecasts : Evidence from a survey of professional forecasters," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(2), pages 203-241, April.
    2. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Working Papers 19-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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    4. Emme, Verena & Henze, Justus & Reichmann, Werner & Weinig, Max, 2021. "Economics in Action – die Erstellung von Wirtschaftsprognosen in der (Corona-)Krise," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 63, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecast error evaluation; questionnaire; survey; business cycle forecast; professional forecaster;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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