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Does Banknote Quality Affect Counterfeit Detection? Experimental Evidence from Germany and the Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • van der Horst Frank
  • Miedema Jelle

    (De Nederlandsche Bank, Westeinde 1, 1017 ZN, Amsterdam, Netherlands)

  • Eschelbach Martina
  • Sieber Susann

    (Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14, 60431Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

Abstract
Counterfeit prevention is a major concern for central banks. In search of effective policy measures, it is often claimed that a clean banknote circulation helps the general public to more easily detect counterfeits. To examine this claim, we conducted an experimental study with 250 consumers and 261 cashiers in the Netherlands and Germany. Participants received 200 banknotes with either a high or a low average soil level. The banknote test sets contained 20 counterfeits to be detected by the participants. For the regression analysis we applied approaches used in the area of psychophysical science (signal detection theory). Our candidates identified more counterfeits when sorting clean banknotes. However, our analysis also showed that the cleanliness of banknotes does not actually help the person checking the banknote to more easily distinguish a counterfeit banknote from a genuine note. In fact, new and clean banknotes raised suspicion: they were more often declared as counterfeits – correctly or not. We discuss the implication of our results for central banks’ banknote policies.

Suggested Citation

  • van der Horst Frank & Miedema Jelle & Eschelbach Martina & Sieber Susann, 2017. "Does Banknote Quality Affect Counterfeit Detection? Experimental Evidence from Germany and the Netherlands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(6), pages 469-497, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:237:y:2017:i:6:p:469-497:n:10
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2017-0122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Bagnall & David Bounie & Kim P. Huynh & Anneke Kosse & Tobias Schmidt & Scott Schuh, 2016. "Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 1-61, December.
    2. John Bagnall & David Bounie & Kim P. Huynh & Anneke Kosse & Tobias Schmidt & Scott Schuh, 2016. "Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 1-61, December.
    3. Nicole Jonker & Bram Scholten & Marco Wind (DNB) & Martijn van Emmerik & Marieke van der Hoeven (TNO Human Factors), 2006. "Counterfeit or genuine: can you tell the difference?," DNB Working Papers 121, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    5. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    6. Hans de Heij, 2010. "Banknote design for retailers and public," DNB Occasional Studies 804, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank van der Horst & Jelle Miedema & Joshua Snell & Jan Theeuwes, 2020. "Banknote verification relies on vision, feel and a single second," Working Papers 680, DNB.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banknotes; counterfeits; banknote quality; signal detection theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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