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Medizinisch-technischer Fortschritt und altersspezifische Gesundheitsausgaben / Medical Progress and Age-specific Expenditure on Health Care

Author

Listed:
  • Ried Walter

    (Lehrstuhl für Allgemeine Volkswirtschaftslehre und Finanzwissenschaft, Rechts- und Staatswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Universität Greifswald, Friedrich-Loeffler-Str. 70, 17487 Greifswald, Germany)

Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of population aging, driven by medical progress, upon agespecific expenditure on health care. In a model set up in discrete time, individuals at each age may catch a lethal disease which, upon receiving appropriate medical treatment, nevertheless involves a mortality risk. The incidence of lethal diseases, the associated survival probability conditional upon treatment, and health care expenditure conditional upon health status may all depend on an individual’s history of health status in the past.Medical progress is taken to involve an increase in the survival probability of a specified lethal disease. First, this produces a direct effect on age-specific health care expenditure to the extent that progress affects the cost of treatment of the disease. Second, indirect effects may also arise relating to individuals who, having survived the disease at some prior age, change the structure of individuals alive at current age. Specifically, these “new survivors” may influence age-specific expenditure either through changes in the incidence of lethal diseases or in the associated treatment cost. The sign of an indirect effect crucially depends on health care expenditure for “new survivors” relative to their peers.The analysis yields a number of general results with respect to the impact of medical progress on the age profile of health care expenditure. For example, both compression of morbidity and expansion of morbidity are hypotheses which relate to “new survivors” such that they fail to account for the total effect of progress on age-specific expenditure.

Suggested Citation

  • Ried Walter, 2007. "Medizinisch-technischer Fortschritt und altersspezifische Gesundheitsausgaben / Medical Progress and Age-specific Expenditure on Health Care," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(5-6), pages 636-659, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:227:y:2007:i:5-6:p:636-659
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2007-5-614
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126.
    2. Ried, Walter, 2007. "On the relationship between aging, edical progress and age-specific health care expenditures," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 08/2007, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    3. Breyer, Friedrich & Felder, Stefan, 2006. "Life expectancy and health care expenditures: A new calculation for Germany using the costs of dying," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 178-186, January.
    4. Breyer Friedrich & Ulrich Volker, 2000. "Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse / Ageing, Medical Progress and Health Care Expenditures: A Regression Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 220(1), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the “Red Herring”," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October.
    6. Peter Zweifel & Lukas Steinmann & Patrick Eugster, 2005. "The Sisyphus Syndrome in Health Revisited," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 127-145, June.
    7. Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of ‘red herrings’?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126, October.
    8. Office of Health Economics, 2007. "The Economics of Health Care," For School 001490, Office of Health Economics.
    9. Fetzer, Stefan, 2005. "Determinanten der zukünftigen Finanzierbarkeit der GKV: Doppelter Alterungsprozess, Medikalisierungs- vs. Kompressionsthese und medizinisch-technischer-Fortschritt," Discussion Papers 130, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    10. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496, September.
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