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Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways

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We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe.

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  • Noam Bergman & Alex Haxeltine & Lorraine Whitmarsh & Jonathan Köhler & Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans, 2008. "Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(3), pages 1-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:jas:jasssj:2008-1-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Fatih Canıtez, 2021. "The Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles: A Socio-Technical Transition Perspective," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 9(2), pages 143-162, December.
    2. Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans & Noam Bergman, 2008. "Modelling societal transitions with agent transformation," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 283-301, December.
    3. Köhler, Jonathan & Turnheim, Bruno & Hodson, Mike, 2020. "Low carbon transitions pathways in mobility: Applying the MLP in a combined case study and simulation bridging analysis of passenger transport in the Netherlands," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Canitez, Fatih, 2019. "Pathways to sustainable urban mobility in developing megacities: A socio-technical transition perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 319-329.
    5. Nguyen, Le Khanh Ngan & Howick, Susan & Megiddo, Itamar, 2024. "A framework for conceptualising hybrid system dynamics and agent-based simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1153-1166.
    6. Pieter Valkering & Gönenç Yücel & Ernst Gebetsroither-Geringer & Karin Markvica & Erika Meynaerts & Niki Frantzeskaki, 2017. "Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Xi Yang & Xiang Yu & Xin Liu, 2018. "Obtaining a Sustainable Competitive Advantage from Patent Information: A Patent Analysis of the Graphene Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, December.
    8. Whitmarsh, Lorraine, 2012. "How useful is the Multi-Level Perspective for transport and sustainability research?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 483-487.
    9. Bale, Catherine S.E. & Varga, Liz & Foxon, Timothy J., 2015. "Energy and complexity: New ways forward," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 150-159.
    10. Köhler, Jonathan & Whitmarsh, Lorraine & Nykvist, Björn & Schilperoord, Michel & Bergman, Noam & Haxeltine, Alex, 2009. "A transitions model for sustainable mobility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2985-2995, October.
    11. Papachristos, George & Adamides, Emmanuel, 2016. "A retroductive systems-based methodology for socio-technical transitions research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-14.
    12. Marinakis, Yorgos D. & Walsh, Steven T. & White, Reilly, 2024. "What is the relationship between sociotechnical transition and disruptive innovations?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    13. Lopolito, A. & Morone, P. & Taylor, R., 2013. "Emerging innovation niches: An agent based model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1225-1238.
    14. Scrieciu, S. Şerban & Barker, Terry & Ackerman, Frank, 2013. "Pushing the boundaries of climate economics: critical issues to consider in climate policy analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 155-165.
    15. Lisa-Britt Fischer & Jens Newig, 2016. "Importance of Actors and Agency in Sustainability Transitions: A Systematic Exploration of the Literature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-21, May.
    16. Hans Haan, 2008. "The dynamics of functioning investigating societal transitions with partial differential equations," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 302-319, December.
    17. Auke Hoekstra & Maarten Steinbuch & Geert Verbong, 2017. "Creating Agent-Based Energy Transition Management Models That Can Uncover Profitable Pathways to Climate Change Mitigation," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-23, December.
    18. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
    19. Hidayatno, Akhmad & Jafino, Bramka Arga & Setiawan, Andri D. & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu, 2020. "When and why does transition fail? A model-based identification of adoption barriers and policy vulnerabilities for transition to natural gas vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    20. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    21. Walrave, Bob & Raven, Rob, 2016. "Modelling the dynamics of technological innovation systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1833-1844.
    22. Fjalar J. De Haan & Briony C. Rogers, 2019. "The Multi-Pattern Approach for Systematic Analysis of Transition Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-30, January.
    23. Lee, Junmin & Kim, Keungoui & Kim, Jiyong & Hwang, Junseok, 2022. "The relationship between shared mobility and regulation in South Korea: A system dynamics approach from the socio-technical transitions perspective," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    24. Busch, Jonathan & Roelich, Katy & Bale, Catherine S.E. & Knoeri, Christof, 2017. "Scaling up local energy infrastructure; An agent-based model of the emergence of district heating networks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 170-180.
    25. Ringler, Philipp & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Agent-based modelling and simulation of smart electricity grids and markets – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 205-215.

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