[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ororsc/v24y2013i4p1061-1082.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Happened to Long-Term Employment? The Role of Worker Power and Environmental Turbulence in Explaining Declines in Worker Tenure

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew J. Bidwell

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104)

Abstract
Recent declines in the average length of time that U.S. workers spend with a given employer represent an important change in the nature of the employment relationship, yet it is one whose causes are poorly understood. I explore those causes using Current Population Survey data on the tenure of men aged 30–65, from the years 1979–2008.I argue that long-term employment relationships primarily occur when workers pressure employers to close off employment from market competition, reducing the attractiveness of external mobility relative to internal opportunities and increasing employment security. I then explore how two changes in organizations’ environments—a decline in union strength and increased turbulence from changes in technology and globalization—might have affected workers’ ability to secure such closed employment relationships over the last 30 years.My results support the argument that declines in tenure reflect the reduced power of workers to secure closed employment relationships. Recent declines in tenure have been concentrated in large organizations, and many of those declines are explained by controlling for the changing levels of industry unionization. I find little evidence that foreign competition or technological change affected mobility. The results are robust to measures of changing industry growth rates and within-industry reorganization. Supplementary analyses suggest that layoffs are associated with different industry pressures than tenure and that voluntary mobility may have played an important role in declines in tenure.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew J. Bidwell, 2013. "What Happened to Long-Term Employment? The Role of Worker Power and Environmental Turbulence in Explaining Declines in Worker Tenure," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(4), pages 1061-1082, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ororsc:v:24:y:2013:i:4:p:1061-1082
    DOI: 10.1287/orsc.1120.0816
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1120.0816
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/orsc.1120.0816?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neumark, David & Polsky, Daniel & Hansen, Daniel, 1999. "Has Job Stability Declined Yet? New Evidence for the 1990s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 29-64, October.
    2. Freeman, Richard B, 1988. "Contraction and Expansion: The Divergence of Private Sector and Public Sector Unionism in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 63-88, Spring.
    3. Michael Podgursky, 1986. "Unions, Establishment Size, and Intra-Industry Threat Effects," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 39(2), pages 277-284, January.
    4. Brown, Charles & Medoff, James, 1989. "The Employer Size-Wage Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1027-1059, October.
    5. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 259-287, April.
    6. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    7. Frank Levy & Peter Temin, 2007. "Inequality and Institutions in 20th Century America," NBER Working Papers 13106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    9. Paul Oyer & Scott Schaefer, 2000. "Layoffs and Litigation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(2), pages 345-358, Summer.
    10. Brigitte C. Madrian & Lars John Lefgren, 1999. "A Note on Longitudinally Matching Current Population Survey (CPS) Respondents," NBER Technical Working Papers 0247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Art Budros, 1999. "A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing Why Organizations Downsize," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 69-82, February.
    12. Paul S. Adler, 2001. "Market, Hierarchy, and Trust: The Knowledge Economy and the Future of Capitalism," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(2), pages 215-234, April.
    13. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2002. "Information Technology, Workplace Organization, and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 339-376.
    14. Barry T. Hirsch, 2008. "Sluggish Institutions in a Dynamic World: Can Unions and Industrial Competition Coexist?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 153-176, Winter.
    15. David Card, 2001. "The Effect of Unions on Wage Inequality in the U.S. Labor Market," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 54(2), pages 296-315, January.
    16. Fligstein, Neil & Shin, Taek-Jin, 2007. "Shareholder Value and the Transformation of American Industries, 1984-2001," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt4r16k6j6, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    17. Steven J. Davis, 2008. "The Decline of Job Loss and Why It Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 263-267, May.
    18. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    19. S. Rosen, 1969. "Trade Union Power, Threat Effects and the Extent of Organization," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(2), pages 185-196.
    20. George Baker & Michael Gibbs & Bengt Holmstrom, 1994. "The Internal Economics of the Firm: Evidence from Personnel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(4), pages 881-919.
    21. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    22. Freeman, Richard B & Medoff, James L, 1981. "The Impact of the Percentage Organized on Union and Nonunion Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 561-572, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Cappelli, 2014. "Skill Gaps, Skill Shortages and Skill Mismatches: Evidence for the US," NBER Working Papers 20382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Leung, Ming D., 2016. "Learning to hire? Hiring as a dynamic experiential process in an online market for contract labor," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt6z86b2vx, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    3. Paul Osterman, 2024. "Reconsidering Occupational Internal Labor Markets: Incidence and Consequences," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 77(3), pages 366-395, May.
    4. Hansen, Charlotte R., 2018. "The Past, Present, and Future: The ins and outs of a veterinarian who would change veterinary sectors if they could," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273786, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Michael Palanski & Alexander Newman & Hannes Leroy & Celia Moore & Sean Hannah & Deanne Den Hartog, 2021. "Quantitative Research on Leadership and Business Ethics: Examining the State of the Field and an Agenda for Future Research," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 109-119, January.
    6. J. Adam Cobb, 2019. "Managing the Conflicting Interests of Workers and Shareholders: Evidence from Pension-Assumption Manipulations," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(3), pages 523-551, May.
    7. Young-Choon Kim & Taekjin Shin & Sangchan Park, 2021. "Enhancing firm performance through intra-group managerial experience: Evidence from group-affiliated firms in Korea," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 435-465, June.
    8. Meir Russ, 2017. "The Trifurcation of the Labor Markets in the Networked, Knowledge-Driven, Global Economy," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 8(2), pages 672-703, June.
    9. J. Adam Cobb & Ken-Hou Lin, 2017. "Growing Apart: The Changing Firm-Size Wage Premium and Its Inequality Consequences," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 429-446, June.
    10. Virginia Doellgast & Matthew Bidwell & Alexander J. S. Colvin, 2021. "New Directions in Employment Relations Theory: Understanding Fragmentation, Identity, and Legitimacy," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 74(3), pages 555-579, May.
    11. Matthew Bidwell & Ethan Mollick, 2015. "Shifts and Ladders: Comparing the Role of Internal and External Mobility in Managerial Careers," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(6), pages 1629-1645, December.
    12. J. Adam Cobb, 2015. "Risky Business: The Decline of Defined Benefit Pensions and Firms’ Shifting of Risk," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(5), pages 1332-1350, October.
    13. Styhre, Alexander & Bergström, Ola, 2019. "The benefit of market-based governance devices: Reflections on the issue of growing economic inequality as a corporate concern," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 413-420.
    14. Filippo Belloc & Gabriel Burdin & Fabio Landini, 2020. "Corporate Hierarchies and Labor Institutions," Department of Economics University of Siena 827, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    15. Belloc, Filippo & Burdin, Gabriel & Landini, Fabio, 2020. "Corporate Hierarchies under Employee Representation," IZA Discussion Papers 13717, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Kyoung Yong Kim & Pankaj C. Patel, 2021. "A Multilevel Contingency Model of Employee Ownership and Firm Productivity: The Moderating Roles of Industry Growth and Instability," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 625-648, May.
    17. Gregoric, Aleksandra & Kato, Takao & Larsen, Casper B.L., 2024. "Internal Promotion or External Hire? Staffing Management Positions When Employees Have a Seat in the Boardroom," IZA Discussion Papers 17304, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Teresa Ghilarducci & Aida Farmand, 2019. "Why American Older Workers Have Lost Bargaining Power," SCEPA working paper series. 2019-02, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    19. Victoria Sevcenko & Sendil Ethiraj, 2018. "How Do Firms Appropriate Value from Employees with Transferable Skills? A Study of the Appropriation Puzzle in Actively Managed Mutual Funds," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 775-795, October.
    20. Halim Bas, 2022. "The Virtual Brain Drain in Turkey: A Qualitative Research on Remote Employees’ Experiences in Foreign Firms," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 72(72-2), pages 915-951, December.
    21. Jay Dixon & Bryan Hong & Lynn Wu, 2021. "The Robot Revolution: Managerial and Employment Consequences for Firms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5586-5605, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oyer, Paul & Schaefer, Scott, 2011. "Personnel Economics: Hiring and Incentives," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 20, pages 1769-1823, Elsevier.
    2. Janssen, Simon & Mohrenweiser, Jens, 2018. "The Shelf Life of Incumbent Workers during Accelerating Technological Change: Evidence from a Training Regulation Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 11312, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Hornstein, Andreas & Krusell, Per & Violante, Giovanni L., 2005. "The Effects of Technical Change on Labor Market Inequalities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1275-1370, Elsevier.
    4. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2002. "Upstairs, Downstairs: Computers and Skills on Two Floors of a Large Bank," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 55(3), pages 432-447, April.
    5. Ekaterina Prytkova, 2021. "ICT's Wide Web: a System-Level Analysis of ICT's Industrial Diffusion with Algorithmic Links," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    6. Fibla Gasparín, Ma. Teresa, 2010. "Productivity in southern European small firms: When and how work organization complements process innovation," Working Papers 2072/179600, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    7. Fabian Eckert & Sharat Ganapati & Conor Walsh, 2020. "Urban-Biased Growth: A Macroeconomic Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8705, CESifo.
    8. Olarreaga, Marcelo & Cruz, Marcio & Milet, Emmanuel, 2017. "Online Exports and the Wage Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 12092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Piva, Mariacristina & Santarelli, Enrico & Vivarelli, Marco, 2005. "The skill bias effect of technological and organisational change: Evidence and policy implications," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 141-157, March.
    10. Bajgar, Matej & Berlingieri, Giuseppe & Calligaris, Sara & Criscuolo, Chiara & Timmis, Jonathan, 2019. "Industry concentration in Europe and North America," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103427, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Jeronimo Carballo & Richard K. Mansfield & Charles Adam Pfander, 2024. "U.S. Worker Mobility Across Establishments within Firms: Scope, Prevalence, and Effects on Worker Earnings," NBER Working Papers 32420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Antonis Adam & Antonios Garas & Marina-Selini Katsaiti & Athanasios Lapatinas, 2023. "Economic complexity and jobs: an empirical analysis," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 25-52, January.
    13. David Neumark & Michael L. Wachter, 1992. "Union Threat Effects and Nonunion Industry Wage Differentials," NBER Working Papers 4046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sinan Aral & Peter Weill, 2007. "IT Assets, Organizational Capabilities, and Firm Performance: How Resource Allocations and Organizational Differences Explain Performance Variation," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(5), pages 763-780, October.
    15. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Stephan KUDYBA, 2004. "The productivity pay-off from effective allocation of IT and non-IT labour," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 143(3), pages 235-247, September.
    17. Matthew Bidwell & Ethan Mollick, 2015. "Shifts and Ladders: Comparing the Role of Internal and External Mobility in Managerial Careers," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(6), pages 1629-1645, December.
    18. Gallipoli, Giovanni & Makridis, Christos A., 2018. "Structural transformation and the rise of information technology," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 91-110.
    19. Francesco D. Sandulli & Paul M.A. Baker & José I. López-Sánchez, 2014. "Jobs mismatch and productivity impact of information technology," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1060-1074, September.
    20. Gianfranco E. Atzeni & OA Carboni, 2006. "Regional Disparity in ICT Adoption: an Empirical Evaluation of The Effects of Subsidies in Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 200608, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ororsc:v:24:y:2013:i:4:p:1061-1082. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.