[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ime/imemes/v22y2004is1p29-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and the Exchange Rates of Emerging Economies: Keynote Speech

Author

Listed:
  • Obstfeld, Maurice

    (U CA, Berkeley)

Abstract
Among the developing countries of the world, those emerging markets that have sought some degree of integration into the global financial system are characterized by higher per capita incomes, higher long-run growth rates, and lower output and consumption volatility. These characteristics are more likely to be causes than effects of financial integration. The measurable gains from financial integration appear to be lower for emerging markets than for higher-income countries, and appear to have been limited by recent crises. One factor limiting the gains from financial integration is the difficulty emerging economies face in resolving the open-economy trilemma. Given their structural and institutional features, many emerging economies cannot live comfortably either with fixed or with freely floating exchange rates. Most recently, the exchange rates of several emerging countries display attempts at stabilization punctuated by high volatility in periods of market stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Obstfeld, Maurice, 2004. "Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and the Exchange Rates of Emerging Economies: Keynote Speech," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(S1), pages 29-55, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:22:y:2004:i:s1:p:29-55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me22-s1-4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    2. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798, September.
    3. Cédric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    4. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    5. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    6. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, May.
    7. Quinn, Dennis, 1997. "The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(3), pages 531-551, September.
    8. Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff & Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/007, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Wright, Mark L. J., 2004. "Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis, and Growth. By Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004. Pp. xviii, 354. $65," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 1151-1153, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mahmut Çelik & Ayla Oğuş Binatlı, 2022. "How Effective Are Macroprudential Policy Instruments? Evidence from Turkey," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Erdal Ozmen, 2005. "Macroeconomic and institutional determinants of current account deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 557-560.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yong Yang, 2011. "Financial and Monetary Cooperation in Asia: Challenges after the Global Financial Crisis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 573-587, December.
    5. Layal Mansour, 2013. "International Reserves versus External Debts : Can International reserves avoid future Financial Crisis in indebted Countries ?," Working Papers halshs-00864899, HAL.
    6. Olivier Habimana, 2017. "Do flexible exchange rates facilitate external adjustment? A dynamic approach with time-varying and asymmetric volatility," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 625-642, October.
    7. Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(4), pages 541-568, December.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld, 2010. "Expanding gross asset positions and the international monetary system," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-478.
    9. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    12. Mr. John C Bluedorn & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2018. "Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence From the Views of International Forecasters," IMF Working Papers 2018/163, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Erdal Özmen, 2016. "Real Exchange Rates and Growth," ERC Working Papers 1609, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2016.
    14. Ozmen, Erdal & ArInsoy, Deniz, 2005. "The original sin and the blessing trinity: An investigation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 599-609, July.
    15. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Mr. Stephen Tokarick, 2006. "Trade Liberalization, Macroeconomic Adjustment, and Welfare: Unifying Trade and Macro Models," IMF Working Papers 2006/304, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 143-197.
    2. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    3. di Giovanni, Julian & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 341-361, March.
    4. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2010. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4283-4359, Elsevier.
    5. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A.V. & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Common factors in Latin America's business cycles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 212-228, July.
    6. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    7. Simon Gilchrist & Vivian Yue & Egon Zakrajšek, 2019. "U.S. Monetary Policy and International Bond Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 127-161, December.
    8. Moritz Schularick & Thomas M. Steger, 2006. "Does Financial Integration Spur Economic Growth? New Evidence from the First Era of Financial Globalization," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 06/46, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    9. Shu Lin & Haichun Ye, 2015. "The International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Trade Data," Working Papers 082015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    10. Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    11. Kunieda, Takuma & Okada, Keisuke & Shibata, Akihisa, 2011. "Corruption, Globalization, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," MPRA Paper 35355, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2012. "Common Factors Of The Exchange Risk Premium In Emerging European Markets," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(Supplemen), pages 71-85, December.
    13. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Calderon, Cesar & Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2005. "Does openness imply greater exposure ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3733, The World Bank.
    15. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert, 2011. "International Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Countries: National and Global Determinants," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-03, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    16. Alfaro, Laura & Hammel, Eliza, 2007. "Capital flows and capital goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 128-150, May.
    17. Notz, Stefan & Rosenkranz, Peter, 2021. "Business cycles in emerging markets: The role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-450.
    18. Maria Socorro Gochoco‐Bautista & Dennis S. Mapa, 2010. "Linkages between Trade and Financial Integration and Output Growth in East Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-22, March.
    19. Roberto Duncan, 2015. "Simple Models to Understand and Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies," Working Papers 49, Peruvian Economic Association.
    20. Joseph P. Byrne & Jun Nagayasu, 2008. "Common and idiosyncratic factors of the exchange risk premium in emerging European markets," Working Papers 2008_28, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:22:y:2004:i:s1:p:29-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kinken (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.