[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2023q4a2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unanticipated and Backward-Looking: Deflations and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Banerjee

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Aaron Mehrotra

    (Bank for International Settlements)

Abstract
We analyze the behavior of inflation expectations during periods of deflation using a large cross-country data set of professional forecasters’ expectations. We find that deflation episodes are largely unanticipated by forecasters and feature much larger forecast errors than periods of high inflation rates. Furthermore, inflation expectations become more backwardlooking during deflations, especially among forecasters that are pessimistic about growth. The results have implications for a risk-management approach to monetary policy when an economy faces very low inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2023. "Unanticipated and Backward-Looking: Deflations and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(4), pages 41-83, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:4:a:2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb23q4a2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    2. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2018. "Decaying Expectations: What Inflation Forecasts Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 55-101, December.
    3. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June.
    4. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    5. Svensson, Lars-E-O, 2001. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 277-312, February.
    6. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1103-1129, September.
    7. Buono, Ines & Formai, Sara, 2018. "New evidence on the evolution of the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 39-54.
    8. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    9. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
    10. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2022. "Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 68-103, October.
    11. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
    12. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2024. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation: The Role of Credibility and Expectation Anchoring," MPRA Paper 119971, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tatsushi Okuda & Tomohiro Tsuruga, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Communication with Unknown Prior," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    5. Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.
    7. Banerjee, Ryan & Contreras, Juan & Mehrotra, Aaron & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2024. "Inflation at risk in advanced and emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Michael Ehrmann, 2015. "Targeting Inflation from Below: How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 213-249, September.
    9. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Juan Contreras & Aaron Mehrotra & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2020. "Inflation at risk in advanced and emerging economies," BIS Working Papers 883, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Henckel, Timo & Menzies, Gordon D. & Moffatt, Peter & Zizzo, Daniel J., 2019. "Three dimensions of central bank credibility and inferential expectations: The Euro zone," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 294-308.
    12. Ryan Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2021. "Disagreeing during Deflations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(7), pages 1867-1885, October.
    13. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
    14. Mauro Boianovsky, 2004. "The IS-LM Model and the Liquidity Trap Concept: From Hicks to Krugman," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 36(5), pages 92-126, Supplemen.
    15. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    16. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Galo Nuño & Peter Paz, 2024. "Navigating by Falling Stars: Monetary Policy with Fiscally Driven Natural Rates," NBER Working Papers 32219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Cordelius Ilgmann & Martin Menner, 2011. "Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 383-405, December.
    18. Alstadheim Ragna & Henderson Dale W., 2006. "Price-Level Determinacy, Lower Bounds on the Nominal Interest Rate, and Liquidity Traps," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, November.
    19. Laurent Ferrara & Pierre Guérin, 2018. "What are the macroeconomic effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 662-679, August.
    20. Siddartha Chattopadhyay & Betty C. Daniel, 2018. "Taylor-Rule Exit Policies for the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 1-53, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2023:q:4:a:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.