Improving Forecast Accuracy By Combining Recursive And Rolling Forecasts
Author
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005.
"The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004. "The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003.
"The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
- Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, Mark & Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2003.
"Forecasting in large macroeconomic panels using Bayesian Model Averaging,"
Staff Reports
163, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2003. "Forecasting in Large Macroeconomic Panels using Bayesian Model Averaging," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/16, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006.
"Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & White, Halbert, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5jk0j5jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Terui, Nobuhiko & van Dijk, Herman K., 2002.
"Combined forecasts from linear and nonlinear time series models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 421-438.
- Terui, N. & van Dijk, H.K., 1999. "Combined forecasts from linear and nonlinear time series models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9949-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- N. Terui & Herman K. van Dijk, 2000. "Combined Forecasts from Linear and Nonlinear Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-003/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986.
"The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1985. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "How Stable are Financial Prediction Models? Evidence from US and International Stock Market Data," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt74v515fr, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993.
"Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
- Min, C.K. & Zellner, A., 1992. ""Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods for Combining Models and Forecasts with Applications to Forecasting International Growth Rates"," Papers 90-92-23, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2005.
"Recursive Predictability Tests for Real-Time Data,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 336-345, July.
- Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi, 2003. "Recursive Predictability Tests for Real-Time Data," Working Papers 03-24, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2008.
"Learning, forecasting and structural breaks,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 553-583.
- John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2004. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Cahiers de recherche 0422, CIRPEE.
- John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Yao, Yi-Ching, 1988. "Estimating the number of change-points via Schwarz' criterion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 181-189, February.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
"Forecasting inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996.
"Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on structural instability in macroeconomic times series relations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
"The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002.
"Market timing and return prediction under model instability,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24932, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2002. "Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability," FMG Discussion Papers dp412, Financial Markets Group.
- In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002.
"Escaping Nash Inflation,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
- Cho, In-Koo & Sargent, Thomas J., 2000. "Escaping Nash inflation," Working Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
- Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002.
"A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
- Hamilton, James Douglas & Kim, Dong Heon, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt69v8p1m9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. "Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
- William Poole & Robert H. Rasche, 2002. "Flation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Nov), pages 1-6.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Robert F. Engle & Aaron D. Smith, 1999.
"Stochastic Permanent Breaks,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 553-574, November.
- Engle, Robert F & Smith, Aaron, 1998. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt99v0s0zx, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004.
"Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September.
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under General Loss Functions and Forecast Error Distributions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt15r9t2q2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
- Edgerton, David & Wells, Curt, 1994.
"Critical Values for the Cusumsq Statistic in Medium and Large Sized Samples,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(3), pages 355-365, August.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "CUSUMTESTS: RATS procedure to compute and display CUSUM and CUSUMQ tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00045, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009.
"Combining Forecasts from Nested Models,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 303-329, June.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Working Papers 2008-037, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
- Geweke, John & Jiang, Yu, 2011. "Inference and prediction in a multiple-structural-break model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 172-185, August.
- Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006.
"The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008.
"Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
- Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2007. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Working Paper Series 802, European Central Bank.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
- Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018.
"Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation,"
Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Working Papers 201903, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013.
"Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015.
"Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
- Boonsoo Koo & Myung Hwan Seo, 2013. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Boonsoo Koo & Myung Hwan Seo, 2013. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hännikäinen Jari, 2017.
"Selection of an Estimation Window in the Presence of Data Revisions and Recent Structural Breaks,"
Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, January.
- Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Selection of an estimation window in the presence of data revisions and recent structural breaks," MPRA Paper 66759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jari Hännikäinen, 2016. "Selection of an Estimation Window in the Presence of Data Revisions and Recent Structural Breaks," Working Papers 1692, Tampere University, Faculty of Management and Business, Economics.
- Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2012.
"Have structural changes eliminated the out-of-sample ability of financial variables to forecast real activity after the mid-1980s? Evidence from the Canadian economy,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3965-3985, October.
- Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2009. "Have Structural Changes Eliminated the Out-of-Sample Ability of Financial Variables To Forecast Real Activity After the Mid-1980s? Evidence From the Canadian Economy," Working Papers 0910, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013.
"Advances in Forecast Evaluation,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201,
Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006.
"Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," IZA Discussion Papers 1196, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:50:y:2009:i:2:p:363-395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupaus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.