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Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev

    (Russian Foreign Trade Academy)

  • Eugene Goryunov

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Laurence Kotlikoff

    (Boston University)

Abstract
Fiscal gap is an indicator of long run sustainability of government finance. It is used for assessment of the extent to which current fiscal policy is able to keep government budget solvent in the longer period. Fiscal gap is derived from intertemporal budget constraint which connects flows of budget outlays and receipts aggregated along decades. Fiscal gap is defined as a sum of current government debt and present value of future primary deficit flow. In order to get an estimate of Russia’s general government fiscal gap we consider three scenarios which are based on different assumptions regarding demographic trends, productivity growth, extractable reserves of oil and natural gas, long term price of oil and natural gas etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev & Eugene Goryunov & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2015. "Theoretical foundations of fiscal gap as a long-term fiscal sustainability indicator and its estimates for Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 168P, pages 1-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:rpaper:125
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Arcady Solovyev, 2016. "Demographic Risks of the Pension Reform in the Russian Federation," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 162-174.
    2. Igor Yu. Arlashkin, 2021. "Clustering of Russian Regions by Level of Debt Sustainability," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 108-124, October.
    3. E. Goryunov & L. Kotlikoff & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev, 2015. "Fiscal Gap: an Estimate for Russia," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 7.
    4. D. Tverdokhlibova, 2018. "Theory and practice of the use of fiscal sustainability indicators," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 3, pages 7-47.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian economy; public finance; budget sustainability; fiscal gap; budget spending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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