[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v15y2022i2p85-d752418.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comparative Analysis of the Nature of Stock Return Volatility in BRICS and G7 Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Lorraine Muguto

    (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Westville Campus, University of KwaZulu-Natal, University Road, Westville, Private Bag X54001, Durban 4000, South Africa)

  • Paul-Francois Muzindutsi

    (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Westville Campus, University of KwaZulu-Natal, University Road, Westville, Private Bag X54001, Durban 4000, South Africa)

Abstract
Through globalization and financial market liberalization, the opening up of markets has increased cross-border investments as investors search for higher risk-adjusted returns. This ability to invest internationally has raised the attention given to emerging markets that offer higher risk-adjusted returns relative to developed markets. However, despite the growing importance of emerging markets, the literature on the nature of volatility in global markets is typified by generalizations of findings from developed markets. To fill this gap, this study comparatively examined the nature of stock return volatility in developed G7 and emerging BRICS markets. Broad market index data and GARCH models over the period 2003:01–2020:08 were employed. The study found evidence of volatility persistence, asymmetry, mean reversion and weak evidence of a risk premium in both emerging and developed markets. There was also evidence of significant differences in the nature of volatility within the two sets of markets. These volatility patterns in both groups cast doubt on the assertion that developed markets are more informationally efficient than emerging markets. Thus, markets in the same group may not always have the same nature of volatility, especially in the wake of structural events such as the COVID-19 global pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorraine Muguto & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of the Nature of Stock Return Volatility in BRICS and G7 Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-27, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:2:p:85-:d:752418
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/2/85/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/2/85/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Huijun & Yan, Jinghua & Yu, Jianfeng, 2017. "Reference-dependent preferences and the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 395-414.
    2. repec:cup:cbooks:9781108422536 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    4. International Monetary Fund [IMF], 2018. "World Economic Outlook, April 2018: Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change," Working Papers id:12768, eSocialSciences.
    5. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    6. Neville Zivanayi Mandimika & Zivanemoyo Chinzara, 2012. "Risk–Return Trade-Off And Behaviour Of Volatility On The South African Stock Market: Evidence From Both Aggregate And Disaggregate Data," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(3), pages 345-366, September.
    7. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    8. Dirk Hanekom & John M. Luiz, 2018. "The Impact of Multinational Enterprises on Public Governance Institutions in Areas of Limited Statehood," Working Papers 146, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    9. Tobias Adrian & Joshua Rosenberg, 2008. "Stock Returns and Volatility: Pricing the Short‐Run and Long‐Run Components of Market Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2997-3030, December.
    10. Chikashi Tsuji, 2018. "Structural Breaks and Volatility Persistence of Stock Returns: Evidence from the US and UK Equity Markets," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(6), pages 76-83, November.
    11. Geetika Madaan & Sanjeet Singh, 2019. "An Analysis of Behavioral Biases in Investment Decision-Making," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(4), pages 55-67, July.
    12. Vasiliki Chatzikonstanti, 2017. "Breaks and outliers when modelling the volatility of the U.S. stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(46), pages 4704-4717, October.
    13. Henner Gimpel, 2007. "Loss Aversion and Reference-Dependent Preferences in Multi-Attribute Negotiations," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 303-319, July.
    14. repec:agr:journl:v:4(621):y:2019:i:4(621):p:35-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Asai, Manabu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2017. "Realized stochastic volatility with general asymmetry and long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 202-212.
    16. Péter Kondor & Dimitri Vayanos, 2019. "Liquidity Risk and the Dynamics of Arbitrage Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(3), pages 1139-1173, June.
    17. Aliyev, Fuzuli & Ajayi, Richard & Gasim, Nijat, 2020. "Modelling asymmetric market volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from Nasdaq-100," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    18. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    19. Eraker, Bjørn & Wu, Yue, 2017. "Explaining the negative returns to volatility claims: An equilibrium approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 72-98.
    20. Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W, 1993. "Theoretical Relations between Risk Premiums and Conditional Variances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 177-185, April.
    21. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    22. Guiso, Luigi & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2018. "Time varying risk aversion," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 403-421.
    23. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte & Savva, Christos S., 2016. "Risk-return trade-off for European stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 84-103.
    24. Bohl, Martin T. & Reher, Gerrit & Wilfling, Bernd, 2016. "Short selling constraints and stock returns volatility: Empirical evidence from the German stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 159-166.
    25. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tripathy, Trilochan, 2020. "Volatility persistence in the Russian stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    26. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    27. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal, 2017. "Hedge fund return, volatility asymmetry, and systemic effects: A higher-moment factor-EGARCH model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 49-65.
    28. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    29. Chen, Shuning & Zhang, Wei & Feng, Xu & Xiong, Xiong, 2020. "Asymmetry of retail investors’ attention and asymmetric volatility: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    30. Shih-Yung Wei & Jao-Hong Cheng & Li-Wei Lin & Su-Mei Gan, 2020. "Volatility Asymmetry of Scale Indexes - Taking China as an Example," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 158-169.
    31. M. MALLIKARJUNA & R. Prabhakara RAO, 2019. "Volatility experience of major world stock markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(621), W), pages 35-52, Winter.
    32. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    33. Brooks,Chris, 2019. "Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108436823, September.
    34. Xue, Yi & Gençay, Ramazan, 2012. "Trading frequency and volatility clustering," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 760-773.
    35. Delong J. Bradford, 2008. "Stocks for the Long Run," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 5(7), pages 1-2, November.
    36. Charteris, Ailie & Chau, Frankie & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2014. "Premiums, discounts and feedback trading: Evidence from emerging markets' ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 80-89.
    37. Trypsteen, Steven, 2017. "The growth-volatility nexus: New evidence from an augmented GARCH-M model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 15-25.
    38. Adnan Kasman, 2009. "The impact of sudden changes on the persistence of volatility: evidence from the BRIC countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 759-764.
    39. Ma, Rui & Anderson, Hamish D. & Marshall, Ben R., 2018. "Market volatility, liquidity shocks, and stock returns: Worldwide evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 164-199.
    40. Dima Alberg & Haim Shalit & Rami Yosef, 2008. "Estimating stock market volatility using asymmetric GARCH models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1201-1208.
    41. Hojatallah Goudarzi, 2013. "Volatility Mean Reversion and Stock Market Efficiency," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(12), pages 1681-1692.
    42. Pramod Kumar Naik & Rangan Gupta & Puja Padhi, 2018. "The Relationship Between Stock Market Volatility And Trading Volume: Evidence From South Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 52(1), pages 99-114, January-M.
    43. Guo, Hui & Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Investigating the intertemporal risk-return relation in international stock markets with the component GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 371-374, May.
    44. Talwar, Manish & Talwar, Shalini & Kaur, Puneet & Tripathy, Naliniprava & Dhir, Amandeep, 2021. "Has financial attitude impacted the trading activity of retail investors during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    45. Jin, Xiaoye & An, Ximeng, 2016. "Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A volatility impulse response function approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 179-195.
    46. Elena Goldman & Xiangjin Shen, 2018. "Analysis of Asymmetric GARCH Volatility Models with Applications to Margin Measurement," Staff Working Papers 18-21, Bank of Canada.
    47. Henner Gimpel, 2007. "Preferences in Negotiations," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-72338-7, October.
    48. Daniel Borup & Johan S. Jakobsen, 2019. "Capturing volatility persistence: a dynamically complete realized EGARCH-MIDAS model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1839-1855, November.
    49. Rongda Chen & Huiwen Chen & Chenglu Jin & Bo Wei & Lean Yu, 2020. "Linkages and Spillovers between Internet Finance and Traditional Finance: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(6), pages 1196-1210, May.
    50. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Drivers of Realized Volatility for Emerging Countries with a Focus on South Africa: Fundamentals versus Sentiment," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-26, March.
    2. Just, Małgorzata & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2024. "Cryptocurrencies against stock market risk: New insights into hedging effectiveness," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    3. Kejin Wu & Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Climate Risks and Stock Market Volatility Over a Century in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 202326, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Živkov, Dejan & Balaban, Suzana & Simić, Milica, 2024. "Hedging gas in a multi-frequency semiparametric CVaR portfolio," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    2. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Is there a risk-return trade-off in cryptocurrency markets? The case of Bitcoin," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Shekar Bose & Hafizur Rahman, 2022. "Are News Effects Necessarily Asymmetric? Evidence from Bangladesh Stock Market," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, October.
    4. Arısoy, Yakup Eser & Altay-Salih, Aslıhan & Akdeniz, Levent, 2015. "Aggregate volatility expectations and threshold CAPM," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 231-253.
    5. Bachar Fakhry & Christian Richter, 2018. "Does the Federal Constitutional Court Ruling Mean the German Financial Market is Efficient?," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 4(2), pages 111-125.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Giglio, Stefano & Polk, Christopher & Turley, Robert, 2018. "An intertemporal CAPM with stochastic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 207-233.
    7. B M, Lithin & chakraborty, Suman & iyer, Vishwanathan & M N, Nikhil & ledwani, Sanket, 2022. "Modeling asymmetric sovereign bond yield volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 117067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2023.
    8. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Quiterie de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets: The Chinese stock market," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 779-799.
    9. repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sam Howison & David Lamper, 2001. "Trading volume in models of financial derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 119-135.
    11. K. Lebedeva, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Russian Financial Markets’ Liquidity and Returns," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 3(3), pages 5-31.
    12. Senarathne, Chamil W & Jayasinghe, Prabhath, 2017. "Information Flow Interpretation of Heteroskedasticity for Capital Asset Pricing: An Expectation-based View of Risk," MPRA Paper 78771, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2017.
    13. Bali, Turan G. & Engle, Robert F., 2010. "The intertemporal capital asset pricing model with dynamic conditional correlations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 377-390, May.
    14. repec:uts:finphd:38 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
    16. Yueh-Neng Lin & Ken Hung, 2008. "Is Volatility Priced?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(1), pages 39-75, May.
    17. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    18. Suzanne G. M. Fifield & David G. McMillan & Fiona J. McMillan, 2020. "Is there a risk and return relation?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 1075-1101, July.
    19. Nageri Kamaldeen Ibraheem, 2019. "Evaluating Good and Bad News During Pre and Post Financial Meltdown: Nigerian Stock Market Evidence," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 64(3), pages 1-22, December.
    20. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    21. Irena Barjav{s}i'c & Nino Antulov-Fantulin, 2020. "Time-varying volatility in Bitcoin market and information flow at minute-level frequency," Papers 2004.00550, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    22. Abhinava Tripathi, 2021. "The Arrival of Information and Price Adjustment Across Extreme Quantiles: Global Evidence," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-19, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:2:p:85-:d:752418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.