[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v20y2023i1p885-d1024140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Logistic Regression and Survival Model: Case Study of Russian Exports

Author

Listed:
  • Karel Malec

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Socrates Kraido Majune

    (School of Economics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi 30197-00100, Kenya)

  • Elena Kuzmenko

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Joseph Phiri

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Rahab Liz Masese Nyamoita

    (School of Economics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi 30197-00100, Kenya)

  • Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Mansoor Maitah

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Luboš Smutka

    (Department of Trade and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Zdeňka Gebeltová

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Karel Tomšík

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Sylvie Kobzev Kotásková

    (Department of Humanities, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Jiří Marušiak

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract
The importance of environmental sustainability is becoming more and more obvious, so the rationale behind long-term usage of solely non-renewable energy sources appeared questionable. This study aims to identify, using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and logistic regressions, the main determinants that affect the duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports to different regions of the world. Data were retrieved from the databanks of the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), and the French Centre for Prospective studies and International Information (CEPII). The obtained results point to the fact that approximately 52% of energy products survive beyond their first year of trading, nearly 38% survive beyond the second year, and almost 18% survive to the twelfth year. The survival of Russian non-renewable energy exports differs depending on the region, and the affecting factors are of different importance. The duration of Russian non-renewable energy exports is significantly linked to Russia’s GDP, Total export, and Initial export values. A decline in Russia’s GDP by 1% is associated with an increasing probability of a spell ending by 2.9% on average, in turn growing Total export and Initial export values positively linked with the duration of non-renewable energy exports from Russia. These findings may have practical relevance for strategic actions aimed at approaching both energy security and environmental sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Karel Malec & Socrates Kraido Majune & Elena Kuzmenko & Joseph Phiri & Rahab Liz Masese Nyamoita & Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi & Mansoor Maitah & Luboš Smutka & Zdeňka Gebeltová & Karel Tomšík & Sylvi, 2023. "Energy Logistic Regression and Survival Model: Case Study of Russian Exports," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:1:p:885-:d:1024140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/1/885/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/1/885/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2006. "Product differentiation and duration of US import trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 339-358, December.
    2. Majune Kraido Socrates & Eliud Moyi & Kamau Gathiaka, 2020. "Explaining Export Duration in Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 204-224, June.
    3. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2010. "Multiple-Product Firms and Product Switching," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 70-97, March.
    4. Aksana Yarashynskaya & Piotr Prus, 2022. "Smart Energy for a Smart City: A Review of Polish Urban Development Plans," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-13, November.
    5. Paul Brenton & Olivier Cadot & Martha Denisse Pierola, 2012. "Pathways to African Export Sustainability," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9380.
    6. Wang, Qizhen & Zhu, Yingming & Wang, Yudong, 2017. "The effects of oil shocks on export duration of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 55-61.
    7. Tibor Besedeš & Thomas J. Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
    8. David Córcoles & Carmen Díaz-Mora & Rosario Gandoy, 2015. "Export Survival in Global Production Chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1526-1554, October.
    9. Albornoz, Facundo & Fanelli, Sebastián & Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2016. "Survival in export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 262-281.
    10. Roberto Álvarez & Hasan Faruq & Ricardo A. LÓPEZ, 2013. "Is Previous Export Experience Important for New Exports?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 426-441, March.
    11. Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2014. "What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INTERNATIONAL TRADE, DISTRIBUTION AND DEVELOPMENT Empirical Studies of Trade Policies, chapter 17, pages 347-372, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Dreyer, Heiko & Anders, Sven M., 2014. "Experience matters - trade duration and survival of coffee exports," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182758, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Rauch, J E & Watson, Joel, 1999. "Starting Small in an Unfamiliar Environment," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4rp145hc, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    14. Andrea Beltramello & Koen De Backer & Laurent Moussiegt, 2012. "The Export Performance of Countries within Global Value Chains (GVCs)," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2012/2, OECD Publishing.
    15. Rauch, James E. & Watson, Joel, 2003. "Starting small in an unfamiliar environment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1021-1042, September.
    16. Joseph Phiri & Karel Malec & Socrates Kraido Majune & Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi & Zdeňka Gebeltová & Sylvie Kobzev Kotásková & Mansoor Maitah & Kamil Maitah & Patricia Naluwooza, 2021. "Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    17. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    18. Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2013. "Determinants of export survival in the Lao PDR," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6301, The World Bank.
    19. Dahai Fu & Yanrui Wu, 2014. "Export survival pattern and its determinants: an empirical study of Chinese manufacturing firms," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(1), pages 161-177, May.
    20. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2012. "The duration of trade revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1083-1107, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Majune Kraido Socrates & Eliud Moyi & Kamau Gathiaka, 2020. "Explaining Export Duration in Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 204-224, June.
    2. Pişkin, Erhan, 2017. "Türkiye İhracatının Ölüm-Kalım Meselesi [The Matter of Survival for Turkish Exports]," MPRA Paper 81459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Joseph Phiri & Karel Malec & Socrates Kraido Majune & Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi & Zdeňka Gebeltová & Sylvie Kobzev Kotásková & Mansoor Maitah & Kamil Maitah & Patricia Naluwooza, 2021. "Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    4. Konstantīns Beņkovskis & Peter Jarrett & Ze’ev Krill & Oļegs Tkačevs & Naomitsu Yashiro, 2024. "Aim high, shoot low? Product complexity and export survival in Latvia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 185-207, February.
    5. MAJUNE, Socrates, 2015. "A discrete time analysis of export duration in Kenya: 1995 -2014," MPRA Paper 68727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alongkorn Tanasritunyakul, 2023. "Export survival for Thailand after the COVID-19 pandemic," Discussion Papers 20230809, Thammasat University, Faculty of Economics, revised Oct 2023.
    7. Reddy, Ketan & Sasidharan, Subash, 2023. "Innovative efforts and export market survival: Evidence from an emerging economy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    8. Silviano Esteve‐Pérez, 2021. "Previous experience, experimentation and export survival: Evidence from firm‐product‐destination level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2638-2682, September.
    9. Wendkouni Jean‐Baptiste Zongo & Bruno Larue & Carl Gaigné, 2023. "On export duration puzzles," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(2), pages 453-478, March.
    10. Anne‐Célia Disdier & Carl Gaigné & Cristina Herghelegiu, 2023. "Do standards improve the quality of traded products?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1238-1290, November.
    11. Margalida Murillo & Cindy Paola Leal, 2021. "Tratados de Libre Comercio y duración de las exportaciones: Evidencia a nivel de firma para Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 88(6), pages 201-238, July.
    12. Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa & Carrère, Céline, 2014. "Developing Countries Exports Survival in the OECD: Does Experience Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Kemal Türkcan & Socrates Majune Kraido & Eliud Moyi, 2022. "Export margins and survival: A firm‐level analysis using Kenyan data," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(2), pages 149-174, June.
    14. Manuel Tong Koecklin, 2018. "Experimenting in Export Markets," Economics PhD Theses 0918, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    15. Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2017. "Export survival and the dynamics of experience," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 271-300, May.
    16. Zou, Zongsen & Zhang, Yu & Li, Xin & Wang, Xiuling, 2023. "The nexus between product sophistication and export survival: Evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 480-502.
    17. Stirbat, Liviu & Record, Richard & Nghardsaysone, Konesawang, 2015. "The Experience of Survival: Determinants of Export Survival in Lao PDR," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 82-94.
    18. Mélise Jaud & Madina Kukenova & Martin Strieborny, 2009. "Financial dependence and intensive margin of trade," PSE Working Papers halshs-00575005, HAL.
    19. Laura D'Amato & Máximo Sangiácomo & Martin Tobal, 2020. "Export survival and foreign financing," BIS Working Papers 877, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Tomohiko Inui & Keiko Ito & Daisuke Miyakawa, 2017. "Export Experience, Product Differentiation and Firm Survival in Export Markets," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 217-231, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:1:p:885-:d:1024140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.