65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM 2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM 2.5 , it may also contribute to the warming of near- and mid-future climates."> 65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM 2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM 2.5 , it may also contribute to the warming of near- and mid-future climates.">
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Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM 2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models

Author

Listed:
  • Sungbo Shim

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Hyunmin Sung

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Sanghoon Kwon

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Jisun Kim

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Jaehee Lee

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Minah Sun

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Jaeyoung Song

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Jongchul Ha

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Younghwa Byun

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Yeonhee Kim

    (Innovative Meteorological Research Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Seogwipo-si 63568, Jeju-do, Korea)

  • Steven T. Turnock

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
    University of Leeds Met Office Strategic (LUMOS) Research Group, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK)

  • David S. Stevenson

    (School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, UK)

  • Robert J. Allen

    (Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521, USA)

  • Fiona M. O’Connor

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Joao C. Teixeira

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Jonny Williams

    (National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington 6022, New Zealand)

  • Ben Johnson

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • James Keeble

    (Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK
    National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, UK)

  • Jane Mulcahy

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Guang Zeng

    (National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington 6022, New Zealand)

Abstract
This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM 2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM 2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM 2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM 2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM 2.5 , it may also contribute to the warming of near- and mid-future climates.

Suggested Citation

  • Sungbo Shim & Hyunmin Sung & Sanghoon Kwon & Jisun Kim & Jaehee Lee & Minah Sun & Jaeyoung Song & Jongchul Ha & Younghwa Byun & Yeonhee Kim & Steven T. Turnock & David S. Stevenson & Robert J. Allen &, 2021. "Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM 2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:13:p:6817-:d:581935
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lara Aleluia Reis & Laurent Drouet & Rita Van Dingenen & Johannes Emmerling, 2018. "Future Global Air Quality Indices under Different Socioeconomic and Climate Assumptions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-27, October.
    2. Jinwon Kim & Yu Gu & Kuo-Nan Liou & Rokjin Park & Chang-Keun Song, 2012. "Direct and semi-direct radiative effects of anthropogenic aerosols in the Western United States: Seasonal and geographical variations according to regional climate characteristics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 859-877, April.
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