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Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification

Author

Listed:
  • Alaa Abi Morshed

    (Department of Finance and Business Intelligence, AEGON Nederland, 2591 TV Den Haag, The Netherlands)

  • Elena Andreou

    (Department of Economics and CEPR, University of Cyprus, P.O. Box 20537, 1678 Nicosia, Cyprus)

  • Otilia Boldea

    (Department of Econometrics and Operation Research and CentER, Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands)

Abstract
Structural break tests for regression models are sensitive to model misspecification. We show—analytically and through simulations—that the sup Wald test for breaks in the conditional mean and variance of a time series process exhibits severe size distortions when the conditional mean dynamics are misspecified. We also show that the sup Wald test for breaks in the unconditional mean and variance does not have the same size distortions, yet benefits from similar power to its conditional counterpart in correctly specified models. Hence, we propose using it as an alternative and complementary test for breaks. We apply the unconditional and conditional mean and variance tests to three US series: unemployment, industrial production growth and interest rates. Both the unconditional and the conditional mean tests detect a break in the mean of interest rates. However, for the other two series, the unconditional mean test does not detect a break, while the conditional mean tests based on dynamic regression models occasionally detect a break, with the implied break-point estimator varying across different dynamic specifications. For all series, the unconditional variance does not detect a break while most tests for the conditional variance do detect a break which also varies across specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Alaa Abi Morshed & Elena Andreou & Otilia Boldea, 2018. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-39, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:6:y:2018:i:2:p:27-:d:148392
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    1. Dong Jin Lee, 2021. "Bootstrap tests for structural breaks when the regressors and the serially correlated error term are unstable," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 212-229, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural change; sup Wald test; dynamic misspecification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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