[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v12y2022i3p331-d758135.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Decision Support Tool for Buying Farm Tractors, Based on Predictive Analytics

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Ruiz-Garcia

    (Departamento de Ingeniería Agroforestal, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Av. Puerta de Hierro, 2, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • Patricia Sanchez-Guerrero

    (Departamento de Ingeniería Agroforestal, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Av. Puerta de Hierro, 2, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract
Data science can help farmers when making a decision about tractor purchase. Buying a tractor represents a big investment for farmers, and price is one of their main concerns. This study presents the development of a web-based decision support tool (DST) that calculate the price of new and second-hand tractors, for the purpose of providing the decision-maker some information that will lead him to the final decision. The tool makes use of different algorithms based on predictive analytics methodologies. The dataset has information about 227 different observations of new tractors and 1003 of second-hand tractors, from different European countries. During the study, the prices of new and used tractor were modeled, testing parametric and non-parametric regression models with different segmentations and predictor variables. Non parametric models includes regression trees, support vector machines, ensembles of regression trees, Gaussian process, and neural networks. In both cases, for predicting the prices of new and second-hand tractors, adjusted R 2 higher than 0.99 were achieved. The models developed were implemented in the DST which is fully operative, available in Internet, and free to use.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Ruiz-Garcia & Patricia Sanchez-Guerrero, 2022. "A Decision Support Tool for Buying Farm Tractors, Based on Predictive Analytics," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-26, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:3:p:331-:d:758135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/3/331/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/3/331/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Troy J. Dumler & Robert O. Burton & Terry L. Kastens, 2003. "Predicting Farm Tractor Values through Alternative Depreciation Methods," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 506-522.
    2. Rose, David C. & Sutherland, William J. & Parker, Caroline & Lobley, Matt & Winter, Michael & Morris, Carol & Twining, Susan & Ffoulkes, Charles & Amano, Tatsuya & Dicks, Lynn V., 2016. "Decision support tools for agriculture: Towards effective design and delivery," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 165-174.
    3. Bagstad, Kenneth J. & Semmens, Darius J. & Waage, Sissel & Winthrop, Robert, 2013. "A comparative assessment of decision-support tools for ecosystem services quantification and valuation," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 27-39.
    4. Timothy L. Cross & Gregory M. Perry, 1995. "Depreciation Patterns for Agricultural Machinery," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(1), pages 194-204.
    5. Paolo Taticchi & Patrizia Garengo & Sai S. Nudurupati & Flavio Tonelli & Roberto Pasqualino, 2015. "A review of decision-support tools and performance measurement and sustainable supply chain management," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(21), pages 6473-6494, November.
    6. Troy J. Dumler & Robert O. Burton & Terry L. Kastens, 2003. "Predicting Farm Tractor Values through Alternative Depreciation Methods," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 506-522.
    7. James Unterschultz & Glen Mumey, 1996. "Reducing Investment Risk in Tractors and Combines with Improved Terminal Asset Value Forecasts," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 44(3), pages 295-309, November.
    8. Gregory M. Perry & Ahmet Bayaner & Clair J. Nixon, 1990. "The Effect of Usage and Size on Tractor Depreciation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(2), pages 317-325.
    9. Dumler, Troy J. & Burton, Robert O., Jr. & Kastens, Terry L., 2000. "Use Of Alternative Depreciation Methods To Estimate Farm Tractor Values," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21800, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. LeRoy Hansen & Hyunok Lee, 1991. "Estimating Farm Tractor Depreciation: Tax Implications," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 39(3), pages 463-479, November.
    11. Pham, Xuan & Stack, Martin, 2018. "How data analytics is transforming agriculture," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 125-133.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adis Puška & Miroslav Nedeljković & Živče Šarkoćević & Zoran Golubović & Vladica Ristić & Ilija Stojanović, 2022. "Evaluation of Agricultural Machinery Using Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Ivan Herranz-Matey & Luis Ruiz-Garcia, 2023. "A New Method and Model for the Estimation of Residual Value of Agricultural Tractors," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ivan Herranz-Matey & Luis Ruiz-Garcia, 2023. "A New Method and Model for the Estimation of Residual Value of Agricultural Tractors," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Dumler, Troy J. & Burton, Robert O., Jr. & Kastens, Terry L., 2000. "Use Of Alternative Depreciation Methods To Estimate Farm Tractor Values," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21800, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Troy J. Dumler & Robert O. Burton & Terry L. Kastens, 2003. "Predicting Farm Tractor Values through Alternative Depreciation Methods," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 506-522.
    4. Tozer, Peter R., 2005. "Depreciation Rates for Australian Tractors and Headers - Is Machinery Depreciation a Fixed or Variable Cost?," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137951, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Ivan Herranz-Matey & Luis Ruiz-Garcia, 2023. "Agricultural Tractor Retail and Wholesale Residual Value Forecasting Model in Western Europe," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, October.
    6. Daninger, Nathan & Gunderson, Michael A., 2017. "The Pricing and Depreciation Patterns of Used Tractors," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258282, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Ivan Herranz-Matey & Luis Ruiz-Garcia, 2024. "Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in European Agricultural Tractor Residual Value Estimation: A Double Square Root Regression Reappraisal," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, April.
    8. Ivan Herranz-Matey & Luis Ruiz-Garcia, 2024. "New Agricultural Tractor Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) Model in Europe," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-21, February.
    9. Kenkel, Philip L. & Kilima, Fredy, 2004. "Optimal Fertilizer Warehousing and Distribution Systems for Farm Supply Cooperatives," 2004 Annual Meeting, November 2-3 31795, NCERA-194 Research on Cooperatives.
    10. Ivan Herranz-Matey & Luis Ruiz-Garcia, 2023. "Agricultural Combine Remaining Value Forecasting Methodology and Model (and Derived Tool)," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-15, April.
    11. Lips, Markus & Burose, Frank, 2012. "Repair and Maintenance Costs for Agricultural Machines," International Journal of Agricultural Management, Institute of Agricultural Management, vol. 1(3), pages 1-7.
    12. Unknown, 1998. "References/Literature Cited," Commodity Costs and Returns Estimation Handbook,, Iowa State University.
    13. Dumler, Troy J. & Burton, Robert O., Jr. & Kastens, Terry L., 1998. "Implications Of Alternative Farm Tractor Depreciation Methods," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20913, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Jeroen Ooge & Katrien Verbert, 2022. "Visually Explaining Uncertain Price Predictions in Agrifood: A User-Centred Case-Study," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-25, July.
    15. Ainhoa Gonzalez & Álvaro Enríquez-de-Salamanca, 2018. "Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis in Environmental Assessment: A Review and Reflection on Benefits and Limitations," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-24, September.
    16. Maria Björklund & Helena Forslund, 2019. "Challenges Addressed by Swedish Third-Party Logistics Providers Conducting Sustainable Logistics Business Cases," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
    17. Drakou, E.G. & Crossman, N.D. & Willemen, L. & Burkhard, B. & Palomo, I. & Maes, J. & Peedell, S., 2015. "A visualization and data-sharing tool for ecosystem service maps: Lessons learnt, challenges and the way forward," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 134-140.
    18. Alessio D’Auria & Pasquale De Toro & Nicola Fierro & Elisa Montone, 2018. "Integration between GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis for Ecosystem Services Assessment: A Methodological Proposal for the National Park of Cilento, Vallo di Diano and Alburni (Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, September.
    19. Mayer, Alex & Jones, Kelly & Hunt, David & Manson, Robert & Carter Berry, Z. & Asbjornsen, Heidi & Wright, Timothy Max & Salcone, Jacob & Lopez Ramirez, Sergio & Ávila-Foucat, Sophie & Von Thaden Ugal, 2022. "Assessing ecosystem service outcomes from payments for hydrological services programs in Veracruz, Mexico: Future deforestation threats and spatial targeting," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    20. Dong Chen & Rongrong Liu & Maoxian Zhou, 2023. "Delineation of Urban Growth Boundary Based on Habitat Quality and Carbon Storage: A Case Study of Weiyuan County in Gansu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:3:p:331-:d:758135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.