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Simulated Climate Change Impacts on Corn and Soybean Yields in Buchanan County, Iowa

Author

Listed:
  • Edward Osei

    (Department of Agriculture Education and Communication, Tarleton State University, Stephenville, TX 76402, USA)

  • Syed H. Jafri

    (Department of Accounting, Finance, and Economics, Tarleton State University, Stephenville, TX 76402, USA)

  • Ali Saleh

    (Texas Institute for Applied Environmental Research, Tarleton State University, Stephenville, TX 76402, USA)

  • Philip W. Gassman

    (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA)

  • Oscar Gallego

    (Texas Institute for Applied Environmental Research, Tarleton State University, Stephenville, TX 76402, USA)

Abstract
Projections of climate patterns through the end of the 21st century indicate varying impacts across the U.S. However, a common thread of these projections calls for increasing atmospheric temperatures in every region, some more pronounced than others. The significance of these projections for corn and soybean production cannot be overestimated. This study contributes to our understanding of climate change impacts on production and farm revenues by projecting their impacts on corn and soybean yields in Buchanan County, Iowa, a county in the center of the Corn Belt. Projections indicate that as atmospheric temperatures rise and precipitation levels vary markedly, the result is a significant decline in corn and soybean yields, the latter to a lesser extent, as compared to long-term yield trends. Depending upon the climate change scenario that will materialize, corn yields are projected to decline by up to 29%, while soybean yields are projected to decline by up to 24% from their normal upward trends by the year 2100. Due to the long-term upward trends in yields, corn and soybean yields will increase in absolute terms by the end of the century. Depending upon the climate change scenario, actual corn and soybean yields will increase by 30 to 57% and 30 to 66%, respectively, by the end of the 21st century, significantly less than they would have in the absence of these climate projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Osei & Syed H. Jafri & Ali Saleh & Philip W. Gassman & Oscar Gallego, 2023. "Simulated Climate Change Impacts on Corn and Soybean Yields in Buchanan County, Iowa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:2:p:268-:d:1043925
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Edward Osei & Syed H. Jafri & Philip W. Gassman & Ali Saleh, 2023. "Simulated Ecosystem and Farm-Level Economic Impacts of Conservation Tillage in a Northeastern Iowa County," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Ramazan Çakmakçı & Mehmet Ali Salık & Songül Çakmakçı, 2023. "Assessment and Principles of Environmentally Sustainable Food and Agriculture Systems," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-27, May.
    3. Cori Salinas & Edward Osei & Mark Yu & Selin Guney & Ashley Lovell & Eunsung Kan, 2024. "Climate Change Effects on Texas Dryland Winter Wheat Yields," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Edward Osei & Syed H. Jafri & Philip W. Gassman & Ali Saleh & Oscar Gallego, 2023. "Climate Change Impacts on Surface Runoff and Nutrient and Sediment Losses in Buchanan County, Iowa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Ivan Malashin & Vadim Tynchenko & Andrei Gantimurov & Vladimir Nelyub & Aleksei Borodulin & Yadviga Tynchenko, 2024. "Predicting Sustainable Crop Yields: Deep Learning and Explainable AI Tools," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-29, October.

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