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Scenario Assessment of Macroeconomic Effects of Progressive Taxation in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Elizaveta V. Martyanova

    (RANEPA, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Andrey V. Polbin

    (RANEPA, Moscow, Russian Federation; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract
The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of alternative options of progressive taxation on Russia’s macroeconomic performance. For quantitative assessments, a neoclassical general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households subject to idiosyncratic income shocks was used. Three groups of scenarios were analyzed, setting a threshold progressive tax scale with thresholds of 30, 50, and 70 thousand rubles, under which state income tax revenues (1) grow, (2) remain unchanged, and (3) decline. The maximum personal income tax rate in the analyzed scenarios was 25%. Steady states and transitions were calculated for the scenarios. According to the quantitative estimates, the first reform leads to a loss of 0.3% to 1.3% of GDP in the long run, depending on the assumed rates and threshold. Despite the increase in lump-sum transfers, aggregate household consumption decreases by 0.5–1.7% in all cases. The second reform leads to a loss of 0.2% to 0.6% of GDP in the long run. The third reform leads to insignificant fluctuations of GDP within 0.1%: GDP increases at the threshold of 30 thousand rubles and decreases at other thresholds. The scale of inequality reduction, as measured by the Gini coefficient, increases with an increase in the top tax rate. However, as the threshold increases, the depth of the Gini index reduction first increases and then decreases. In the short run, there is upward pressure on wages and prices. This is because a decrease in labor supply with unchanged capital in the short run leads to an increase in wage rates (a shift along the labor demand curve), and an increase in wage rates means an increase in marginal costs for firms, leading to higher prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizaveta V. Martyanova & Andrey V. Polbin, 2024. "Scenario Assessment of Macroeconomic Effects of Progressive Taxation in Russia," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 8-30, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:240101:p:8-30
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2024-1-8-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    general equilibrium; heterogeneous agents; fiscal policy; progressive taxation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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