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Expectations and the term structure of interest rates : evidence and implications

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  • Robert G. King
  • Andre Kurmann
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  • Robert G. King & Andre Kurmann, 2002. "Expectations and the term structure of interest rates : evidence and implications," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 49-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreq:y:2002:i:fall:p:49-95
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
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    6. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
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    9. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    10. Robert L. Hetzel & Ralph F. Leach, 2001. "The Treasury-Fed Accord : a new narrative account," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 33-55.
    11. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    12. Favero, Carlo A., 2006. "Taylor rules and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1377-1393, October.
    13. Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Explaining the increased variability in long-term interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 71-96.
    14. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
    15. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    16. Marvin Goodfriend, 1997. "Monetary policy comes of age: a 20th century odyssey," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-22.
    17. Nelson, Charles R & Schwert, G William, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis That the Real Rate of Interest is Constant," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 478-486, June.
    18. Raymond E. Owens & Roy H. Webb, 2001. "Using the federal funds futures market to predict monetary policy actions," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 69-77.
    19. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. André Kurmann, 2004. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Theories with an Application to New Keynesian Pricing," Cahiers de recherche 0421, CIRPEE.
    2. Simone Casellina & Mariacristina Uberti, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Long-term Interest Rate Dynamics: Taylor Rule Extensions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 183-198, September.
    3. Tillmann, Peter, 2007. "Inflation regimes in the US term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 203-223, March.
    4. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    5. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2387, Yale School of Management.
    6. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 950-967, December.
    7. Robert Tchaidze & Alina Carare, 2004. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How precisely can we estimate them?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 132, Econometric Society.
    8. Shigeyuki Hamori & Naoko Hamori, 2009. "Introduction of the Euro and the Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7169, August.
    9. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2011. "News Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Challenge for DSGE Models," 2011 Meeting Papers 426, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
    11. Rautureau, Nicolas, 2004. "Measuring the long-term perception of monetary policy and the term structure," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2004, Bank of Finland.
    12. Tillmann, Peter, 2003. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 27/2003, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    13. Rageh, Rania, 2010. "Interest rate rule for the conduct of monetary policy: analysis for Egypt (1997:2007)," MPRA Paper 26639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2387, Yale School of Management.
    15. Corrado Macchiarelli, 2013. "On the Joint Test of the Uncovered Interest Parity and the Ex-ante Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 519-535, August.
    16. Favero, Carlo A., 2006. "Taylor rules and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1377-1393, October.
    17. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," KOF Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    18. Philip N. Jefferson, 2023. "Implementation and Transmission of Monetary Policy: a speech at the H. Parker Willis Lecture, Washington and Lee University, Lexington, Virginia, March 27, 2023," Speech 95893, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    20. PeterTillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 53, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Shigeyuki Hamori & Naoko Hamori, 2009. "International term structure of interest rates in the Euro area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1113-1116.
    22. Pawel Milobedzki, 2012. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of LIBOR US Dollar Interest Rates," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 12, pages 5-18.
    23. Mr. Robert Tchaidze & Ms. Alina Carare, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 2005/148, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Kurmann, Andre, 2007. "VAR-based estimation of Euler equations with an application to New Keynesian pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 767-796, March.

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