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Two Approaches to Predicting the Path of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Is One Better?

Author

Listed:
  • Ben R. Craig
  • Tom Phelan
  • Jan-Peter Siedlarek
  • Jared Steinberg
Abstract
We compare two types of models used to predict the spread of the coronavirus, both of which have been used by government officials and agencies. We describe the nature of the difference between the two approaches and their advantages and limitations. We compare examples of each type of model—the University of Washington IHME or “Murray” model, which follows a curve-fitting approach, and the Ohio State University model, which follows a structural approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben R. Craig & Tom Phelan & Jan-Peter Siedlarek & Jared Steinberg, 2021. "Two Approaches to Predicting the Path of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Is One Better?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(10), pages 1-8, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:90731
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Thomas House & Matt J Keeling, 2010. "The Impact of Contact Tracing in Clustered Populations," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-9, March.
    3. Wang, Peipei & Zheng, Xinqi & Li, Jiayang & Zhu, Bangren, 2020. "Prediction of epidemic trends in COVID-19 with logistic model and machine learning technics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
    5. Ben R. Craig & Tom Phelan & Jan-Peter Siedlarek & Jared Steinberg, 2020. "Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(23), pages 1-8, September.
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    COVID-19;

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