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Carry Trade e Risco Cambial: um Conto de Dois Fatores

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  • Ferreira, Alex Luiz
  • Moore, Michael John
Abstract
Retornos da estratégia de carry trade tem sido explicados usando-se funções de utilidade inseparáveis no tempo que permitem prêmios de risco voláteis. Tipicamente tais funções mimetizam as preferências de economia fechada que dependem de bens duráveis e não duráveis. Este trabalho retorna a uma classificação mais tradicional, em macroeconomia internacional, de consumo entre bens domésticos e importados. O modelo é aplicado para países que representam 99\% do volume mundial do comércio bilateral de câmbio. Reporta-se uma melhora acentuada na significância dos betas de consumo.Carry trade returns have been explained using time inseparable utility functions which allow for volatile risk premia. However these functions typically mimic closed economy preferences which depend on durable and non-durable goods. This paper returns to a more traditional classification of consumption, in international macroeconomics, into domestic and importable goods. The model is implemented for countries that represent 99% of the world market turnover in bilateral foreign exchange trades. We report a marked improvement in estimated consumption betas.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreira, Alex Luiz & Moore, Michael John, 2015. "Carry Trade e Risco Cambial: um Conto de Dois Fatores," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 69(4), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:69:y:2015:i:4:a:35155
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2016. "Precautionary And Long Run Risks For An Open Economy," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 047, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Fernanda Gonçalves & Giuliano Ferreira & Alex Ferreira & Pedro Scatimburgo, 2022. "Currency returns and systematic risk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 609-647, December.
    3. Ferreira, Alex & Matos, Paulo, 2020. "Precautionary risks for an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 154-167.

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