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How to Classify a Government Can a perceptron do it?

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  • António Caleiro
Abstract
The electoral cycle literature has developed in two clearly distinct phases. The first one considered the existence of non-rational (naive) voters whereas the second one considered fully rational voters. It is our view that an intermediate approach is more appropriate, i.e. one that considers learning voters, which are boundedly rational. In this sense, one may consider perceptrons as learning mechanisms used by voters to perform a classification of the incumbent in order to distinguish opportunistic (electorally motivated) from benevolent (non-electorally motivated) behaviour of the government. The paper explores precisely the problem of how to classify a government showing in which, if so, circumstances a perceptron can resolve that problem. This is done by considering a model recently considered in the literature, i.e. one allowing for output persistence, which is a feature of aggregate supply that, indeed, may turn impossible to correctly classify the government.

Suggested Citation

  • António Caleiro, 2013. "How to Classify a Government Can a perceptron do it?," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 3(3), pages 523-523.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:ijfirm:v:3:y:2013:i:3:p:523
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Westaway, 1992. "A Forward-Looking Approach to Learning in Macroeconomic Models," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 140(1), pages 86-97, May.
    2. Antonio Caleiro, 2012. "Output Persistence in Portugal," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 2(3), pages 206-206.
    3. Minford, Patrick, 1995. "Time-Inconsistency, Democracy, and Optimal Contingent Rules," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 195-210, April.
    4. Westaway, Peter, 1992. "A Forward-Looking Approach to Learning in Macroeconomic Models∗," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 140, pages 86-97, May.
    5. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    6. Caleiro, António, 2009. "How upside down are political business cycles when there is output persistence," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 22-26, March.
    7. Jonsson, Gunnar, 1997. "Monetary politics and unemployment persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 303-325, July.
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