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Does crime depend on the “state” of economic misery?

Author

Listed:
  • Troy Lorde
  • Mahalia Jackman
  • Simon Naitram
  • Shane Lowe
Abstract
Purpose - It is generally understood that during periods of economic hardship, some persons turn to crime to compensate for income deficiencies. The paper investigates the impact of economic misery on crime. The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into the relationship between economic conditions and economic misery. Design/methodology/approach - An index of misery is employed that takes into account not only the rate of unemployment, but also the rate of inflation. The non-linearity of the relationship between economic misery and crime is modelled using Markov-switching (MS) models and the synchronization of their cycles is measured via the concordance index. Findings - The paper looked at the relationship between economic misery and five types of crime: property crime, theft from motor, theft of motor, fraud and robbery. No evidence of a contemporaneous relationship between economic misery and crime was uncovered. Property and theft of motor crime respond to the state of misery with a lag of one period, supporting the criminal motivation effect. Economic misery is in the same regime as property crime 50 per cent of the time and with theft from motor crime almost 60 per cent of the time. Originality/value - Most of the theoretical and empirical work is based on larger economies. The paper provides some insight into the relationship between economic conditions and economic misery in developing microstates, a niche which has been largely ignored in the literature. The use of MS models in the paper deviates from the tradition of examining linear relationships on the basis that the variables under investigation are inherently cyclical and linear analysis is likely to provide a weak fit under these circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Troy Lorde & Mahalia Jackman & Simon Naitram & Shane Lowe, 2016. "Does crime depend on the “state” of economic misery?," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(11), pages 1124-1134, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:ijse-03-2015-0047
    DOI: 10.1108/IJSE-03-2015-0047
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ajide Folorunsho M., 2019. "Institutional Quality, Economic Misery and Crime Rate in Nigeria," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 170-182, January.
    2. Marc Audi & Amjad Ali, 2023. "Public Policy and Economic Misery Nexus: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing World," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 56-73, May.
    3. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2019. "Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Misery; Small island states;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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