[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v37y2015icp83-91.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ex post appraisal: What lessons can be learnt from EU cohesion funded transport projects?

Author

Listed:
  • Kelly, Charlotte
  • Laird, James
  • Costantini, Stefano
  • Richards, Phil
  • Carbajo, José
  • Nellthorp, John
Abstract
This paper is concerned with project level outcomes of 10 large transport projects spread over eight countries that had benefited from EU Cohesion and ISPA funding. These are analysed within a cost benefit analysis framework with comparisons being made between the ex ante and ex post cost benefit analyses. The research finds that despite much attention being placed on the issue of optimism bias over the last decade it still remains prevalent. It also finds that there is a clear need to improve the quality and consistency of ex ante analysis particularly in the areas of capital cost estimation, travel demand modelling and risk analysis. Additionally our research identifies the limited role that formal decision making tools such as cost benefit analysis and multi-criteria analysis play in the decision making process of the countries surveyed. The benefit of undertaking ex post cost benefit analysis is maximised when a set of schemes are analysed – thereby allowing patterns in outcomes and weaknesses in ex ante methodologies to be identified. Ex post work is not without its challenges particularly in defining the counterfactual and addressing institutional memory loss.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, Charlotte & Laird, James & Costantini, Stefano & Richards, Phil & Carbajo, José & Nellthorp, John, 2015. "Ex post appraisal: What lessons can be learnt from EU cohesion funded transport projects?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 83-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:37:y:2015:i:c:p:83-91
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.09.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X14002108
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.09.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    2. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2012. "Urban Growth and Transportation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1407-1440.
    3. Gibbons, Stephen & Machin, Stephen, 2005. "Valuing rail access using transport innovations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 148-169, January.
    4. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2007. "Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 34(4), pages 578-597, August.
    5. Mackie, Peter & Preston, John, 1998. "Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, January.
    6. Piet Rietveld & Frank Bruinsma, 1998. "Is Transport Infrastructure Effective?," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-642-72232-5.
    7. Boardman, Anthony E. & Mallery, Wendy L. & Vining, Aidan R., 1994. "Learning from ex ante/ex post cost-benefit comparisons: the coquihalla highway example," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 69-84.
    8. Fan, Shenggen & Chan-Kang, Connie, 2008. "Regional road development, rural and urban poverty: Evidence from China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 305-314, September.
    9. Vicente Inglada & GinÊs de Rus, 1997. "Cost-benefit analysis of the high-speed train in Spain," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 31(2), pages 175-188.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Odeck, James & Kjerkreit, Anne, 2019. "The accuracy of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) in transportation: An ex-post evaluation of road projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 277-294.
    2. Zhao, Bing & Wang, Nuo & Wang, Yixuan, 2022. "The role of different transportation modes in China's national economy: An input–output analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 92-102.
    3. Munday, Max & Reynolds, Laura & Roberts, Annette, 2023. "Re-appraising ‘in-process’ benefits of strategic infrastructure improvements: Capturing the unexpected socio-economic impacts for lagging regions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 119-127.
    4. Alcaraz Carrillo de Albornoz, Vicente & Sánchez Soliño, Antonio & Lara Galera, Antonio & Isabel Álvarez, José Miguel, 2021. "Bankrupt PPPs: Is it really so bad? Case study of R-3 and R-5 toll motorways in Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 78-87.
    5. Laird, James J. & Venables, Anthony J., 2017. "Transport investment and economic performance: A framework for project appraisal," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-11.
    6. Bos, Ernst & de Swart, Linette, 2024. "Towards a better comparison of ex-post and ex-ante BCA's by decomposing potential causes of difference," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 36-45.
    7. Locatelli, Giorgio & Invernizzi, Diletta Colette & Brookes, Naomi J., 2017. "Project characteristics and performance in Europe: An empirical analysis for large transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 108-122.
    8. Francis Marleau Donais & Irène Abi-Zeid & E. Owen D. Waygood & Roxane Lavoie, 2019. "A review of cost–benefit analysis and multicriteria decision analysis from the perspective of sustainable transport in project evaluation," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 7(3), pages 327-358, November.
    9. Silvia Vignetti & Francesco Giffoni & Chiara Pancotti & Francesca Pagliara, 2020. "Analytical framework for ex‐post evaluation of transport projects: Lessons learnt on retrospective CBA," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(3), pages 683-703, June.
    10. Dimitrios Dimitriou & Maria Sartzetaki, 2022. "Performance assessment modeling for managing transport enterprises based on modified fuzzy TOPSIS analysis," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 6037-6053, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rosa M. González-Marrero & Rosa M. Lorenzo-Alegría & Gustavo A. Marrero, 2011. "Los Efectos Territoriales de las Infraestructuras: La inversión en redes de alta velocidad ferroviaria," Economic Reports 05-2011, FEDEA.
    2. Ana Isabel Moreno-Monroy & Frederico Ramos, 2015. "The impact of public transport expansions on informality: the case of the São Paulo Metropolitan Region," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1551, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Claudia N. Berg & Uwe Deichmann & Yishen Liu & Harris Selod, 2017. "Transport Policies and Development," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 465-480, April.
    4. Stephen Gibbons & Wenjie Wu, 2020. "Airports, access and local economic performance: evidence from China [Are Chinese cities too small?]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 903-937.
    5. Moreno-Monroy, Ana I. & Ramos, Frederico Roman, 2021. "The impact of public transport expansions on informality: The case of the São Paulo Metropolitan Region," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Wu, Wenjie, 2015. "Rail access and subjective well-being: Evidence from quality of life surveys," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 456-470.
    7. Wenjie Wu & Guanpeng Dong & Bing Wang, 2015. "Does Planning Matter? Effects on Land Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 242-269, February.
    8. Okamoto, Chigusa & Sato, Yasuhiro, 2021. "Impacts of high-speed rail construction on land prices in urban agglomerations: Evidence from Kyushu in Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Pogonyi, Csaba G. & Graham, Daniel J. & Carbo, Jose M., 2021. "Metros, agglomeration and displacement. Evidence from London," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm & Nikolaus Wolf, 2015. "The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2127-2189, November.
    11. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Pantelis Koutroumpis & Tommaso Valletti, 2017. "Speed 2.0: Evaluating Access to Universal Digital Highways," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 586-625.
    12. Hugo Priemus & Bert van Wee (ed.), 2013. "International Handbook on Mega-Projects," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14791.
    13. Garcia-López, Miquel-Àngel & Herranz-Loncán, Alfonso & Tassinari, Filippo & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2023. "Paving the way to modern growth: The Spanish Bourbon roads," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Kristoffer Moeller & Nicolai Wendland, 2015. "Chicken or egg? The PVAR econometrics of transportation," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(6), pages 1169-1193.
    15. Chantal C. Cantarelli & Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "Mega-projects’ cost performance and lock-in: problems and solutions," Chapters, in: Hugo Priemus & Bert van Wee (ed.), International Handbook on Mega-Projects, chapter 15, pages 333-355, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Olof Ejermo & Katrin Hussinger & Basheer Kalash & Torben Schubert, 2022. "Innovation in Malmö after the Öresund Bridge," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 5-20, January.
    17. Henry G. Overman, 2010. "“Gis A Job”: What Use Geographical Information Systems In Spatial Economics?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 165-180, February.
    18. Luisa Doerr & Florian Dorn & Stefanie Gaebler & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "How new airport infrastructure promotes tourism: evidence from a synthetic control approach in German regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(10), pages 1402-1412, October.
    19. Holl, Adelheid, 2016. "Highways and productivity in manufacturing firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 131-151.
    20. Riukula, Krista & Väänänen, Touko, 2024. "Estimating the Labour Market Impacts of Transport Projects in Finland," ETLA Working Papers 120, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:37:y:2015:i:c:p:83-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.