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Transportation uncertainty and international trade

Author

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  • Liu, Xiaoyun
  • Xin, Xian
Abstract
This paper uses a numerical framework to demonstrate that uncertainty in the arrival time of foreign goods can substantially reduce the demand for foreign goods. It further reveals that the impacts of falling transport costs and shipment time on international trade growth could be discounted, if uncertainty arises in the arrival time of the imported goods. This in turn suggests that reduced uncertainty, which is possibly the results of transportation improvements, might have contributed to the growth experienced in world trade growth over the past several decades. Thus, neglecting the roles of improvements in international transportation arrangements and reduced uncertainty will lead to underestimating the contribution of transportation improvements to trade growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xiaoyun & Xin, Xian, 2011. "Transportation uncertainty and international trade," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 156-162, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:156-162
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    8. Ehsan Rasoulinezhad, 2018. "A new evidence from the effects of Russia’s WTO accession on its foreign trade," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(1), pages 73-92, April.
    9. Çekyay, Bora & Toktaş Palut, Peral & Kabak, Özgür & Ülengin, Füsun & Özaydın, Özay & Ülengin, Burç, 2017. "Analysis of the impact of bilateral and transit quotas on Turkey's international trade by road transport: An integrated maximum flow and gravity model approach," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 70-77.
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    Trade Uncertainty Transportation;

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