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The introduction of electric vehicles in Brazil: Impacts on oil and electricity consumption

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  • Baran, Renato
  • Legey, Luiz Fernando Loureiro
Abstract
The aim of this article is to measure the impact on energy consumption of the introduction of electric vehicles on to the Brazilian market. To this end, a demand forecast model was used under four different scenarios, each scenario pre-supposing a given level of penetration of the hybrid vehicles in the market. It is shown that with the use of electricity for individual transport, a reduction in the consumption of gasoline, in 2030, of 40.7% would be accompanied by an increase in electricity consumption of 31.3% in relation to official projections, which means a reduction of 28.9% in total energy consumption by the national fleet, or approximately 24.6×106toe/year. Since one of the main obstacles to the introduction of electric cars in Brazil is the competition with the biofuels program, particularly ethanol, we sought to demonstrate here that electricity could act not as a substitute, but rather a complement for ethanol and gasoline. Despite the significant potential domestic production of fossil fuels in Brazil as a result of the discoveries in the pre-salt, the ethanol and the electricity produced in the country come from renewable sources. This circumstance, together with the fact that their domestic production takes place with minimal dependence on foreign raw materials and lesser price oscillation as compared to petroleum derivatives, makes electrical vehicles an attractive alternative.

Suggested Citation

  • Baran, Renato & Legey, Luiz Fernando Loureiro, 2013. "The introduction of electric vehicles in Brazil: Impacts on oil and electricity consumption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(5), pages 907-917.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:5:p:907-917
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.024
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    Cited by:

    1. Dantas, Guilherme de A. & de Castro, Nivalde J. & Brandão, Roberto & Rosental, Rubens & Lafranque, Alexandre, 2017. "Prospects for the Brazilian electricity sector in the 2030s: Scenarios and guidelines for its transformation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 997-1007.
    2. Juliano da Silva PEREIRA & Tatiana Maria Cecy GADDA & Eduardo Cesar AMANCIO & Jair URBANETZ JÚNIOR & Janine Nicolosi CORRÊA & Thiago Carvalho dos Reis SILVEIRA, 2021. "An Energy Transition Analysis For A Public Transit Bus System," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(3), pages 53-72, August.
    3. Tao, Miaomiao, 2024. "Dynamics between electric vehicle uptake and green development: Understanding the role of local government competition," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 227-240.
    4. Simona Bigerna & Silvia Micheli, 2018. "Attitudes Toward Electric Vehicles: The Case of Perugia Using a Fuzzy Set Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-14, November.
    5. Su, Chi Wei & Shao, Xuefeng & Jia, Zhijie & Nepal, Rabindra & Umar, Muhammad & Qin, Meng, 2023. "The rise of green energy metal: Could lithium threaten the status of oil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Moncada, J.A. & Verstegen, J.A. & Posada, J.A. & Junginger, M. & Lukszo, Z. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2018. "Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil: An agent-based modeling approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 619-641.
    7. Lilley, Jonathan & Firestone, Jeremy, 2013. "The effect of the 2010 Gulf oil spill on public attitudes toward offshore oil drilling and wind development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 90-98.
    8. Martínez-Lao, Juan & Montoya, Francisco G. & Montoya, Maria G. & Manzano-Agugliaro, Francisco, 2017. "Electric vehicles in Spain: An overview of charging systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 970-983.
    9. Ruoso, Ana Cristina & Ribeiro, José Luis Duarte, 2022. "An assessment of barriers and solutions for the deployment of electric vehicles in the Brazilian market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 218-229.
    10. Buranelli de Oliveira, Marina & Moretti Ribeiro da Silva, Hermes & Jugend, Daniel & De Camargo Fiorini, Paula & Paro, Carlos Eduardo, 2022. "Factors influencing the intention to use electric cars in Brazil," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 418-433.
    11. Fabienne T. Schiavo & Rodrigo F. Calili & Claudio F. de Magalhães & Isabel C. G. Fróes, 2021. "The Meaning of Electric Cars in the Context of Sustainable Transition in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-24, October.
    12. Brito, Thiago Luis Felipe & Islam, Towhidul & Stettler, Marc & Mouette, Dominique & Meade, Nigel & Moutinho dos Santos, Edmilson, 2019. "Transitions between technological generations of alternative fuel vehicles in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    13. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Sebastián Naranjo-Silva & Kenny Escobar-Segovia, 2020. "Long-Term Forecast of Energy and Fuels Demand Towards a Sustainable Road Transport Sector in Ecuador (2016–2035): A LEAP Model Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, January.
    14. Kai Liu & Dong Liu & Cheng Li & Toshiyuki Yamamoto, 2019. "Eco-Speed Guidance for the Mixed Traffic of Electric Vehicles and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles at an Isolated Signalized Intersection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-13, October.
    15. Teixeira, Ana Carolina Rodrigues & Sodré, José Ricardo, 2016. "Simulation of the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions from replacement of a conventional Brazilian taxi fleet by electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1617-1622.
    16. Gandhi, Oktoviano & Oshiro, Andre H. & Medeiros Costa, Hirdan Katarina de & Santos, Edmilson M., 2017. "Energy intensity trend explained for Sao Paulo state," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1046-1054.
    17. Grangeia, Carolina & Santos, Luan & Ferreira, Daniel Viana & Guimarães, Raphael & de Magalhães Ozorio, Luiz & Tavares, Arthur, 2023. "Energy transition scenarios in the transportation sector in Brazil: Contributions from the electrical mobility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    18. Jaiswal, Deepak & Kaushal, Vikrant & Kant, Rishi & Kumar Singh, Pankaj, 2021. "Consumer adoption intention for electric vehicles: Insights and evidence from Indian sustainable transportation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    19. Alzaghrini, Nadine & Milovanoff, Alexandre & Roy, Riddhiman & Abdul-Manan, Amir F.N. & McKechnie, Jon & Posen, I. Daniel & MacLean, Heather L., 2024. "Closing the GHG mitigation gap with measures targeting conventional gasoline light-duty vehicles – A scenario-based analysis of the U.S. fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).

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