[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v127y2020ics0305750x19304243.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Steel in a circular economy: Global implications of a green shift in China

Author

Listed:
  • Nechifor, Victor
  • Calzadilla, Alvaro
  • Bleischwitz, Raimund
  • Winning, Matthew
  • Tian, Xu
  • Usubiaga, Arkaitz
Abstract
China is increasingly known for its ambitions towards an ‘ecological civilisation’ and a circular economy. Our article assesses the implications of an accelerated shift towards steel recycling in China. Given the relevance of steel for development worldwide as well as its environmental intensity, any such shift is likely to have implications for competitiveness in China and beyond. Recent findings suggest that China could take advantage of an increasing availability of obsolete steel scrap in the coming decades, moving towards more circular, and potentially greener, steel production. We assess such industrial restructuring from an economic perspective and address the competitiveness of China relative to other developing and industrialised regions. The analysis uses a novel global economy-wide modelling framework (ENGAGE-materials) to assess the aggregate and sector-level impacts of different scrap use options in China in the 2019–2030 time frame. The results show moderate GDP gains for China of cumulated USD 589 billion in GDP gains by 2030 despite a replacement of primary steel capacity. A more comprehensive industrial policy mix aimed at improved recycling practices and more adaptive downstream sectors could increase gains to USD 819 billion. The international implications are mixed, with losses for iron ore producers (Australia, Brazil and India) and gains for most developing countries benefiting from lower steel prices. Another result is an increasing demand for coal in electricity production if such a shift wouldn’t be aligned with an accelerated energy transition towards low carbon pathways. We discuss policy implications of such alignment, potential co-benefits, and a need for green international partnerships.

Suggested Citation

  • Nechifor, Victor & Calzadilla, Alvaro & Bleischwitz, Raimund & Winning, Matthew & Tian, Xu & Usubiaga, Arkaitz, 2020. "Steel in a circular economy: Global implications of a green shift in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:127:y:2020:i:c:s0305750x19304243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104775
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19304243
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104775?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yong Geng & Joseph Sarkis & Raimund Bleischwitz, 2019. "How to globalize the circular economy," Nature, Nature, vol. 565(7738), pages 153-155, January.
    2. Konstantin Stadler & Richard Wood & Tatyana Bulavskaya & Carl†Johan Södersten & Moana Simas & Sarah Schmidt & Arkaitz Usubiaga & José Acosta†Fernández & Jeroen Kuenen & Martin Bruckner & Stefan, 2018. "EXIOBASE 3: Developing a Time Series of Detailed Environmentally Extended Multi†Regional Input†Output Tables," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(3), pages 502-515, June.
    3. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    4. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    5. Hasanbeigi, Ali & Morrow, William & Sathaye, Jayant & Masanet, Eric & Xu, Tengfang, 2013. "A bottom-up model to estimate the energy efficiency improvement and CO2 emission reduction potentials in the Chinese iron and steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 315-325.
    6. Matthew Winning & Alvaro Calzadilla & Raimund Bleischwitz & Victor Nechifor, 2017. "Towards a circular economy: insights based on the development of the global ENGAGE-materials model and evidence for the iron and steel industry," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 383-407, July.
    7. T. E. Graedel & Julian Allwood & Jean‐Pierre Birat & Matthias Buchert & Christian Hagelüken & Barbara K. Reck & Scott F. Sibley & Guido Sonnemann, 2011. "What Do We Know About Metal Recycling Rates?," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 15(3), pages 355-366, June.
    8. Li, Zhaoling & Dai, Hancheng & Song, Junnian & Sun, Lu & Geng, Yong & Lu, Keyu & Hanaoka, Tatsuya, 2019. "Assessment of the carbon emissions reduction potential of China's iron and steel industry based on a simulation analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 279-290.
    9. Jeffrey C Peters, 2016. "The GTAP-Power Data Base: Disaggregating the Electricity Sector in the GTAP Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 209-250, June.
    10. Meyer, Bernd & Ahlert, Gerd, 2019. "Imperfect Markets and the Properties of Macro-economic-environmental Models as Tools for Policy Evaluation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 80-87.
    11. Oecd, 2015. "Excess Capacity in the Global Steel Industry and the Implications of New Investment Projects," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
    12. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    13. John A. Mathews & Hao Tan, 2016. "Circular economy: Lessons from China," Nature, Nature, vol. 531(7595), pages 440-442, March.
    14. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    15. Will McDowall & Yong Geng & Beijia Huang & Eva Barteková & Raimund Bleischwitz & Serdar Türkeli & René Kemp & Teresa Doménech, 2017. "Circular Economy Policies in China and Europe," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 21(3), pages 651-661, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2023. "China’s Inter-Provincial Energy Security Resilience Assessment over Space and Time: An Improved Gray Relational Projection Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Winning, Matthew & Domenech, Teresa, 2022. "Synergies and trade-offs between climate and circular economy policies in the steel industry," Conference papers 333480, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Taghipour, Amirhossein & Akkalatham, Wareerath & Eaknarajindawat, Natnaporn & Stefanakis, Alexandros I., 2022. "The impact of government policies and steel recycling companies' performance on sustainable management in a circular economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Hanspeter Wieland & Manfred Lenzen & Arne Geschke & Jacob Fry & Dominik Wiedenhofer & Nina Eisenmenger & Johannes Schenk & Stefan Giljum, 2022. "The PIOLab: Building global physical input–output tables in a virtual laboratory," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(3), pages 683-703, June.
    5. Yuancheng Lin & Honghua Yang & Linwei Ma & Zheng Li & Weidou Ni, 2021. "Low-Carbon Development for the Iron and Steel Industry in China and the World: Status Quo, Future Vision, and Key Actions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-28, November.
    6. Zhengke Du & Chengcheng Zhu & Yuxin Zhou, 2022. "Increasing Quantity or Improving Quality: Can Soil Pollution Control Promote Green Innovation in China’s Industrial and Mining Enterprises?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Marta Bottero & Federico Dell’Anna & Vito Morgese, 2021. "Evaluating the Transition Towards Post-Carbon Cities: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-28, January.
    8. Calzadilla, Alvaro & Carr, Tony, 2020. "Land degradation and food security: impacts and adaptation options," Conference papers 333148, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska, 2020. "Between stranded assets and green transformation: Fossil-fuel-producing developing countries towards 2055," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 130, pages 1-1.
    10. Laura Tolettini & Eleonora Di Maria, 2023. "Structuring and Measuring Environmental Sustainability in the Steel Sector: A Single Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-26, April.
    11. Pegels, Anna & Altenburg, Tilman, 2020. "Latecomer development in a “greening” world: Introduction to the Special Issue," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Pauliuk & Niko Heeren, 2020. "ODYM—An open software framework for studying dynamic material systems: Principles, implementation, and data structures," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(3), pages 446-458, June.
    2. Kun Peng & Kuishuang Feng & Bin Chen & Yuli Shan & Ning Zhang & Peng Wang & Kai Fang & Yanchao Bai & Xiaowei Zou & Wendong Wei & Xinyi Geng & Yiyi Zhang & Jiashuo Li, 2023. "The global power sector’s low-carbon transition may enhance sustainable development goal achievement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    4. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    5. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    6. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    9. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    10. Dugan, Anna & Mayer, Jakob & Thaller, Annina & Bachner, Gabriel & Steininger, Karl W., 2022. "Developing policy packages for low-carbon passenger transport: A mixed methods analysis of trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    11. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    12. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    13. Zheng, Zhoumin & Xu, Nuo & Khan, Mohsin & Pedersen, Michael & Abdalgader, Tarteel & Zhang, Lai, 2024. "Nonlinear impacts of climate change on dengue transmission in mainland China: Underlying mechanisms and future projection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    14. Hongliang Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Bruce A. McCarl & Jialing Yu, 2022. "The impact of climate change on global energy use," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, January.
    15. Francesco Lamperti & Valentina Bosetti & Andrea Roventini & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "The public costs of climate-induced financial instability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 829-833, November.
    16. Julien CALAS & Antoine GODIN & Julie MAURIN (AFD) & and Etienne ESPAGNE (World Bank), 2022. "Global biodiversity scenarios: what do they tell us for biodiversity-related socioeconomic impacts?," Working Paper 1a39419b-ef1d-4b82-a7be-d, Agence française de développement.
    17. Juliette N. Rooney-Varga & Florian Kapmeier & John D. Sterman & Andrew P. Jones & Michele Putko & Kenneth Rath, 2020. "The Climate Action Simulation," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 51(2), pages 114-140, April.
    18. Moyer, Jonathan D. & Hedden, Steve, 2020. "Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    20. Ansari, Dawud & Holz, Franziska & Al-Kuhlani, Hashem, 2020. "Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 21-42.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:127:y:2020:i:c:s0305750x19304243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.