[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v49y2019icp71-81.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The intraday dynamics of bitcoin

Author

Listed:
  • Eross, Andrea
  • McGroarty, Frank
  • Urquhart, Andrew
  • Wolfe, Simon
Abstract
Bitcoin has received much investor attention in recent years and following this, there has been an explosion of academic studies examining this new financial asset. We contribute to the growing literature of Bitcoin by examining the intraday variables of the leading Bitcoin exchange with the highest information share over 4 years’ worth of data to reveal the intraday stylized facts of Bitcoin and how they have developed over time. Employing GMT-timestamped tick data aggregated to the 5-mintuely frequency, we find that Bitcoin returns have increased over time, while trading volume, volatility and liquidity varied substantially over time. We also find that volume increases throughout the day and falls from around 4 pm until midnight, which is consistent with the intraday patterns found in currency markets. Realised volatility is fairly consistent throughout the day although it is highest during the opening times of the three major global stock markets. Also liquidity is highest during the opening times of the major global exchanges and the markets tend to be illiquid during the early morning. Finally, we show evidence of the mixture of distribution hypothesis of Clark (1973).

Suggested Citation

  • Eross, Andrea & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew & Wolfe, Simon, 2019. "The intraday dynamics of bitcoin," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 71-81.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:49:y:2019:i:c:p:71-81
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.01.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027553191830552X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.01.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. McInish, Thomas & Wood, Robert A., 1990. "A transactions data analysis of the variability of common stock returns during 1980-1984," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 99-112, March.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis & Plastun, Alex, 2018. "Persistence in the cryptocurrency market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 141-148.
    3. Philippe Masset & Martin Wallmeier, 2010. "A High†Frequency Investigation of the Interaction between Volatility and DAX Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(3), pages 327-344, June.
    4. Wood, Robert A & McInish, Thomas H & Ord, J Keith, 1985. "An Investigation of Transactions Data for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 723-739, July.
    5. Gao, Lei & Han, Yufeng & Zhengzi Li, Sophia & Zhou, Guofu, 2018. "Market intraday momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 394-414.
    6. Urquhart, Andrew, 2017. "Price clustering in Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 145-148.
    7. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jana, R.K. & Das, Debojyoti & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Informational efficiency of Bitcoin—An extension," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 106-109.
    8. Madhavan, Ananth & Richardson, Matthew & Roomans, Mark, 1997. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1035-1064.
    9. Brock, William A. & Kleidon, Allan W., 1992. "Periodic market closure and trading volume : A model of intraday bids and asks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 451-489.
    10. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Datestamping the Bitcoin and Ethereum bubbles," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 81-88.
    11. Francis Breedon & Angelo Ranaldo, 2013. "Intraday Patterns in FX Returns and Order Flow," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 953-965, August.
    12. David Yermack, 2013. "Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An economic appraisal," NBER Working Papers 19747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Urquhart, Andrew, 2018. "What causes the attention of Bitcoin?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 40-44.
    14. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    15. Nadarajah, Saralees & Chu, Jeffrey, 2017. "On the inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 6-9.
    16. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    17. McGroarty, Frank & ap Gwilym, Owain & Thomas, Stephen, 2009. "The role of private information in return volatility, bid-ask spreads and price levels in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 387-401, April.
    18. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    19. Bouri, Elie & Molnár, Peter & Azzi, Georges & Roubaud, David & Hagfors, Lars Ivar, 2017. "On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 192-198.
    20. Dennis, Patrick & Mayhew, Stewart & Stivers, Chris, 2006. "Stock Returns, Implied Volatility Innovations, and the Asymmetric Volatility Phenomenon," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 381-406, June.
    21. Jennings, Robert H & Starks, Laura T & Fellingham, John C, 1981. "An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 143-161, March.
    22. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    23. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    24. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    25. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    26. Corbet, Shaen & Meegan, Andrew & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Exploring the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 28-34.
    27. Charlie X. Cai & Robert Hudson & Kevin Keasey, 2004. "Intra Day Bid‐Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Recent Empirical Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5‐6), pages 647-676, June.
    28. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Bitcoin, gold and the dollar – A GARCH volatility analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 85-92.
    29. Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Segmentation and time-of-day patterns in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2199-2206, December.
    30. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
    31. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    32. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    33. Bariviera, Aurelio F., 2017. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin revisited: A dynamic approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1-4.
    34. Jonathan Batten & Brian Lucey & Frank McGroarty & Maurice Peat & Andrew Urquhart, 2017. "Stylized facts of intraday precious metals," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, April.
    35. Dwyer, Gerald P., 2015. "The economics of Bitcoin and similar private digital currencies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 81-91.
    36. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    37. Platanakis, Emmanouil & Sutcliffe, Charles & Urquhart, Andrew, 2018. "Optimal vs naïve diversification in cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 93-96.
    38. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    39. Charlie X. Cai & Robert Hudson & Kevin Keasey, 2004. "Intra Day Bid‐Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Volatility: Recent Empirical Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5‐6), pages 647-676, June.
    40. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 139-144.
    41. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Peat, Maurice & Vigne, Samuel, 2018. "Bitcoin Futures—What use are they?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 23-27.
    42. Brandvold, Morten & Molnár, Peter & Vagstad, Kristian & Andreas Valstad, Ole Christian, 2015. "Price discovery on Bitcoin exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 18-35.
    43. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    44. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:953-965 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    2. Shimeng Shi & Yukun Shi, 2021. "Bitcoin futures: trade it or ban it?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4-5), pages 381-396, March.
    3. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    4. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    5. Urquhart, Andrew & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2019. "Is Bitcoin a hedge or safe haven for currencies? An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 49-57.
    6. Wang, Jying-Nan & Liu, Hung-Chun & Hsu, Yuan-Teng, 2020. "Time-of-day periodicities of trading volume and volatility in Bitcoin exchange: Does the stock market matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    7. Robert Hudson & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "Technical trading and cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 191-220, February.
    8. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2019. "Cryptocurrency market contagion: Market uncertainty, market complexity, and dynamic portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 37-51.
    9. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2019. "An empirical investigation of volatility dynamics in the cryptocurrency market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 322-335.
    11. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    12. Bedi, Prateek & Nashier, Tripti, 2020. "On the investment credentials of Bitcoin: A cross-currency perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Ahmed H. Elsayed & Giray Gozgor & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2022. "Causality and dynamic spillovers among cryptocurrencies and currency markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2026-2040, April.
    14. ORĂȘTEAN Ramona & MĂRGINEAN Silvia Cristina & SAVA Raluca, 2019. "Bitcoin In The Scientific Literature – A Bibliometric Study," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 14(3), pages 160-174, December.
    15. Lennart Ante, 2020. "A place next to Satoshi: foundations of blockchain and cryptocurrency research in business and economics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(2), pages 1305-1333, August.
    16. Wang, Jinghua & Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2020. "Does Bitcoin still own the dominant power? An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Platanakis, Emmanouil & Urquhart, Andrew, 2020. "Should investors include Bitcoin in their portfolios? A portfolio theory approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4).
    18. Pengfei Wang & Wei Zhang & Xiao Li & Dehua Shen, 2019. "Trading volume and return volatility of Bitcoin market: evidence for the sequential information arrival hypothesis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(2), pages 377-418, June.
    19. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Madigu, Godfrey & Romero-Rojo, Fatima, 2020. "Volatility persistence in cryptocurrency markets under structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 680-691.
    20. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Sensoy, Ahmet & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "The relationship between implied volatility and cryptocurrency returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Cryptocurrency; Intraday patterns; Granger causality; Lead-lag; High-frequency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:49:y:2019:i:c:p:71-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.