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What does the bond yield curve tell us about Tunisian economic activity?

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  • Boukhatem, Jamel
  • Sekouhi, Hayfa
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to examine the predictive power of the term structure of Tunisia bond yields using Probit models with monthly data. The results are consistent with many studies performed in other countries and relatively inconclusive although. The yield curve can be considered as an advanced indicator for growth or recession in Tunisian economy. The paper provides significant evidence to private investors, market participants and policy makers on the usefulness of the spread in forecasting output growth for up to four quarters ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Boukhatem, Jamel & Sekouhi, Hayfa, 2017. "What does the bond yield curve tell us about Tunisian economic activity?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 295-303.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:295-303
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Hang Thi Thu Vu, 2021. "The Relationship between Yield Curve and Economic Activity: An Analysis of G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic activity; Bond yield spread; Forecasts; Probit models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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