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When risks cannot be seen: Regulating uncertainty in emerging technologies

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  • Bonnín Roca, Jaime
  • Vaishnav, Parth
  • Morgan, M.Granger
  • Mendonça, Joana
  • Fuchs, Erica
Abstract
Commercializing an emerging technology that employs an immature production process can be challenging, particularly when there are many different sources of uncertainty. In industries with stringent safety requirements, regulatory interventions that ensure safety while maintaining incentives for innovation can be particularly elusive. We use the extreme case of metal additive manufacturing (an emerging technology with many sources of process uncertainty) in commercial aviation (an industry where lapses in safety can have catastrophic consequences) to unpack how the characteristics of a technology may influence the options for regulatory intervention. Based on our findings, we propose an adaptive regulatory framework in which standards are periodically revised and in which different groups of companies are regulated differently as a function of their technological capabilities. We conclude by proposing a generalizable framework for regulating emerging process-based technologies in safety-critical industries in which the optimal regulatory configuration depends on the industry structure (number of firms), the performance and safety requirements, and the sources of technological uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonnín Roca, Jaime & Vaishnav, Parth & Morgan, M.Granger & Mendonça, Joana & Fuchs, Erica, 2017. "When risks cannot be seen: Regulating uncertainty in emerging technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1215-1233.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:46:y:2017:i:7:p:1215-1233
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2017.05.010
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    6. Meghna Mukherjee & Konrad Posch & Santiago J. Molina & Ken Taymor & Ann Keller, 2023. "Comparing regulatory processes in genome editing and autonomous vehicles: How institutional environments shape sociotechnical imaginaries," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 40(3), pages 433-457, May.
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    10. Fatima, Samar & Desouza, Kevin C. & Denford, James S. & Dawson, Gregory S., 2021. "What explains governments interest in artificial intelligence? A signaling theory approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 238-254.
    11. Haessler, Philipp & Giones, Ferran & Brem, Alexander, 2023. "The who and how of commercializing emerging technologies: A technology-focused review," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Ulrich Schmoch & Bernd Beckert & Petra Schaper-Rinkel, 2019. "Impact assessment of a support programme of science-based emerging technologies," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 118(3), pages 1141-1161, March.
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    19. Senna, Pedro P. & Bonnin Roca, Jaime & Barros, Ana C., 2023. "Overcoming barriers to manufacturing digitalization: Policies across EU countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    20. Kwon, Seokbeom & Liu, Xiaoyu & Porter, Alan L. & Youtie, Jan, 2019. "Research addressing emerging technological ideas has greater scientific impact," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    21. Gerges-Yammine, Rand & Ter Wal, Anne L.J., 2023. "Firm exit from open multiparty alliances: The role of social influence, uncertainty, and interfirm imitation in collective technology development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(4).
    22. Amaral, Afonso & Morgan, M. Granger & Mendonça, Joana & Fuchs, Erica R.H., 2023. "National core competencies and dynamic capabilities in times of crisis: Adaptive regulation of new entrants in advanced technology markets," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(4).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Additive manufacturing; Technological uncertainty; Risk regulation; Aviation; Adaptive regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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