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When is a “wait and see” approach to invasive species justified?

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  • Sims, Charles
  • Finnoff, David
Abstract
Predictions of damages and damages that might be avoided from invasive species control policies are marred by uncertainty that has both economic and ecological roots. Public policies directed at invasive species typically lag their detection. One possible explanation is the coupling of uncertainty with political and economic commitments creates an incentive to delay a policy response in order to gain more information on how damaging the invasion will be – a “wait and see” approach. We investigate whether this rationale is justified by identifying invasion characteristics that require the wait and see approach often adopted by lawmakers and government agencies. The model shows that the source of uncertainty and degree of policy irreversibility matter and allows the classification of invasive species with a low rate of spread and low levels of uncertainty as those where policies can be optimally timed in the future.

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  • Sims, Charles & Finnoff, David, 2013. "When is a “wait and see” approach to invasive species justified?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 235-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:35:y:2013:i:3:p:235-255
    DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2013.02.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Strand, Jon, 2017. "Modeling the marginal value of rainforest losses: A dynamic value function approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 322-329.
    3. Xiaoxue Du & Levan Elbakidze & Liang Lu & R. Garth Taylor, 2022. "Climate Smart Pest Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Bate, Andrew M. & Jones, Glyn & Kleczkowski, Adam & MacLeod, Alan & Naylor, Rebecca & Timmis, Jon & Touza, Julia & White, Piran C.L., 2016. "Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 334(C), pages 27-43.
    5. Charles Sims & David Finnoff & Jason Shogren, 2016. "Bioeconomics of invasive species: using real options theory to integrate ecology, economics, and risk management," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 61-70, February.
    6. Jesper S. Schou & Frank Jensen, 2017. "Management of invasive species: Should we prevent introduction or mitigate damages?," IFRO Working Paper 2017/06, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    7. Charles Sims & David Finnoff & Jason F. Shogren, 2018. "Taking One for the Team: Is Collective Action More Responsive to Ecological Change?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(3), pages 589-615, July.
    8. Albers, Heidi J. & Hall, Kim Meyer & Lee, Katherine D. & Taleghan, Majid Alkaee & Dietterich, Thomas G., 2018. "The Role of Restoration and Key Ecological Invasion Mechanisms in Optimal Spatial-Dynamic Management of Invasive Species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 44-54.
    9. Yemshanov, Denys & Haight, Robert G. & Koch, Frank H. & Lu, Bo & Venette, Robert & Fournier, Ronald E. & Turgeon, Jean J., 2017. "Robust Surveillance and Control of Invasive Species Using a Scenario Optimization Approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 86-98.
    10. Jacob LaRiviere & David Kling & James N Sanchirico & Charles Sims & Michael Springborn, 2018. "The Treatment of Uncertainty and Learning in the Economics of Natural Resource and Environmental Management," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 92-112.
    11. Denys Yemshanov & Robert G Haight & Cuicui Chen & Ning Liu & Christian J K MacQuarrie & Frank H Koch & Robert Venette & Krista Ryall, 2019. "Managing biological invasions in urban environments with the acceptance sampling approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-28, August.
    12. Fenichel, Eli P. & Dean, Monica F., 2024. "Blended academic insights for biodiversity and conservation finance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    13. Goldman, Matt & Rao, Justin M., 2017. "Optimal stopping in the NBA: Sequential search and the shot clock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 107-124.
    14. Morag F. Macpherson & Adam Kleczkowski & John R. Healey & Nick Hanley, 2018. "The Effects of Disease on Optimal Forest Rotation: A Generalisable Analytical Framework," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(3), pages 565-588, July.
    15. Liu, Yanxu & Sims, Charles, 2016. "Spatial-dynamic externalities and coordination in invasive species control," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 23-38.
    16. Yemshanov, Denys & Koch, Frank H. & Lu, Bo & Lyons, D. Barry & Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & Scarr, Taylor & Koehler, Klaus, 2014. "There is no silver bullet: The value of diversification in planning invasive species surveillance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 61-72.
    17. C. E. Dangerfield & A. E. Whalley & N. Hanley & C. A. Gilligan, 2018. "What a Difference a Stochastic Process Makes: Epidemiological-Based Real Options Models of Optimal Treatment of Disease," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(3), pages 691-711, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Irreversibilities; Uncertainty; Option value; Invasive species spread; Policy implementation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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