[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v172y2021icp276-288.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deep learning neural networks for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Mellit, A.
  • Pavan, A. Massi
  • Lughi, V.
Abstract
Accurate short-term forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power is indispensable for controlling and designing smart energy management systems for microgrids. In this paper, different kinds of deep learning neural networks (DLNN) for short-term output PV power forecasting have been developed and compared: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Bidirectional GRU (BiGRU), One-Dimension Convolutional Neural Network (CNN1D), as well as other hybrid configurations such as CNN1D-LSTM and CNN1D-GRU. A database of the PV power produced by the microgrid installed at the University of Trieste (Italy) is used to train and comparatively test the neural networks. The performance has been evaluated over four different time horizons (1 min, 5 min, 30 min and 60 min), for one-Step and multi-step ahead. The results show that the investigated DLNNs provide very good accuracy, particularly in the case of 1 min time horizon with one-step ahead (correlation coefficient is close to 1), while for the case of multi-step ahead (up to 8 steps ahead) the results are found to be acceptable (correlation coefficient ranges between 96.9% and 98%).

Suggested Citation

  • Mellit, A. & Pavan, A. Massi & Lughi, V., 2021. "Deep learning neural networks for short-term photovoltaic power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 276-288.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:172:y:2021:i:c:p:276-288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.02.166
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148121003475
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2021.02.166?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yusen Wang & Wenlong Liao & Yuqing Chang, 2018. "Gated Recurrent Unit Network-Based Short-Term Photovoltaic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Gangqiang Li & Huaizhi Wang & Shengli Zhang & Jiantao Xin & Huichuan Liu, 2019. "Recurrent Neural Networks Based Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Gao, Mingming & Li, Jianjing & Hong, Feng & Long, Dongteng, 2019. "Day-ahead power forecasting in a large-scale photovoltaic plant based on weather classification using LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    4. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based LSTM-Convolutional Network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    5. Sharadga, Hussein & Hajimirza, Shima & Balog, Robert S., 2020. "Time series forecasting of solar power generation for large-scale photovoltaic plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 797-807.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Liu, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Liu, Wuming, 2022. "Time series forecasting for hourly photovoltaic power using conditional generative adversarial network and Bi-LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    2. Zhen, Hao & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Shi, Yucheng & Ji, Zhengsen & Xu, Xiaomin, 2021. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based on GA improved Bi-LSTM in microgrid without meteorological information," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    4. Hao Zhen & Dongxiao Niu & Min Yu & Keke Wang & Yi Liang & Xiaomin Xu, 2020. "A Hybrid Deep Learning Model and Comparison for Wind Power Forecasting Considering Temporal-Spatial Feature Extraction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-24, November.
    5. Xu, Fang Yuan & Tang, Rui Xin & Xu, Si Bin & Fan, Yi Liang & Zhou, Ya & Zhang, Hao Tian, 2021. "Neural network-based photovoltaic generation capacity prediction system with benefit-oriented modification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    6. Ze Wu & Feifan Pan & Dandan Li & Hao He & Tiancheng Zhang & Shuyun Yang, 2022. "Prediction of Photovoltaic Power by the Informer Model Based on Convolutional Neural Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
    7. Ma, Huixin & Zhang, Chu & Peng, Tian & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad & Li, Yiman, 2022. "An integrated framework of gated recurrent unit based on improved sine cosine algorithm for photovoltaic power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    8. Miseta, Tamás & Fodor, Attila & Vathy-Fogarassy, Ágnes, 2022. "Energy trading strategy for storage-based renewable power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    9. Yang, Hufang & Jiang, Ping & Wang, Ying & Li, Hongmin, 2022. "A fuzzy intelligent forecasting system based on combined fuzzification strategy and improved optimization algorithm for renewable energy power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    10. Tserenpurev Chuluunsaikhan & Jeong-Hun Kim & Yoonsung Shin & Sanghyun Choi & Aziz Nasridinov, 2022. "Feasibility Study on the Influence of Data Partition Strategies on Ensemble Deep Learning: The Case of Forecasting Power Generation in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.
    11. Li, Chengdong & Zhou, Changgeng & Peng, Wei & Lv, Yisheng & Luo, Xin, 2020. "Accurate prediction of short-term photovoltaic power generation via a novel double-input-rule-modules stacked deep fuzzy method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    12. Tukymbekov, Didar & Saymbetov, Ahmet & Nurgaliyev, Madiyar & Kuttybay, Nurzhigit & Dosymbetova, Gulbakhar & Svanbayev, Yeldos, 2021. "Intelligent autonomous street lighting system based on weather forecast using LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    13. Hongbo Gao & Shuang Qiu & Jun Fang & Nan Ma & Jiye Wang & Kun Cheng & Hui Wang & Yidong Zhu & Dawei Hu & Hengyu Liu & Jun Wang, 2023. "Short-Term Prediction of PV Power Based on Combined Modal Decomposition and NARX-LSTM-LightGBM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-22, May.
    14. Li, Fengyun & Zheng, Haofeng & Li, Xingmei, 2022. "A novel hybrid model for multi-step ahead photovoltaic power prediction based on conditional time series generative adversarial networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 560-586.
    15. Zheng, Lingwei & Su, Ran & Sun, Xinyu & Guo, Siqi, 2023. "Historical PV-output characteristic extraction based weather-type classification strategy and its forecasting method for the day-ahead prediction of PV output," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    16. Mario Tovar & Miguel Robles & Felipe Rashid, 2020. "PV Power Prediction, Using CNN-LSTM Hybrid Neural Network Model. Case of Study: Temixco-Morelos, México," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.
    17. Duan, Jikai & Zuo, Hongchao & Bai, Yulong & Chang, Mingheng & Chen, Xiangyue & Wang, Wenpeng & Ma, Lei & Chen, Bolong, 2023. "A multistep short-term solar radiation forecasting model using fully convolutional neural networks and chaotic aquila optimization combining WRF-Solar model results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    18. Wang, Min & Rao, Congjun & Xiao, Xinping & Hu, Zhuo & Goh, Mark, 2024. "Efficient shrinkage temporal convolutional network model for photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    19. Rodríguez, Fermín & Martín, Fernando & Fontán, Luis & Galarza, Ainhoa, 2021. "Ensemble of machine learning and spatiotemporal parameters to forecast very short-term solar irradiation to compute photovoltaic generators’ output power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    20. Elham M. Al-Ali & Yassine Hajji & Yahia Said & Manel Hleili & Amal M. Alanzi & Ali H. Laatar & Mohamed Atri, 2023. "Solar Energy Production Forecasting Based on a Hybrid CNN-LSTM-Transformer Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:172:y:2021:i:c:p:276-288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.