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Unemployment risk and the timing of homeownership in Japan

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  • Moriizumi, Yoko
  • Naoi, Michio
Abstract
We examine the effect of unemployment risk on the timing of homeownership applying a survival analysis approach. Empirical results from the Split Population Duration (SPD) model suggest that: (1) unemployment risk has a significantly negative effect on homeownership and delays its timing even after controlling for income variability measures, (2) the null hypothesis that every household will eventually become a homeowner is rejected, which supports the SPD model against the standard duration model, and (3) the standard duration model underestimates the effects of both unemployment risk and income variability. Finally, our simulation results indicate that changes in unemployment risk have a fairly large impact on the probability of home purchase--a 10 percentile increase in unemployment probability from its median level would reduce the probability by 2.0 percentage point, whereas comparable changes in income variability measures would reduce the probability mere 0.2-0.3 percentage points.

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  • Moriizumi, Yoko & Naoi, Michio, 2011. "Unemployment risk and the timing of homeownership in Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 227-235, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:41:y:2011:i:3:p:227-235
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    Cited by:

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    3. Stijn Baert & Freddy Heylen & Daan Isebaert, 2014. "Does Homeownership Lead to Longer Unemployment Spells? The Role of Mortgage Payments," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 263-286, September.
    4. Meekes, Jordy & Hassink, Wolter, 2017. "The Role of the Housing Market in Workers' Resilience to Job Displacement after Firm Bankruptcy," IZA Discussion Papers 10894, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    6. Nicholas Apergis, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Housing Prices: Fresh Evidence from a Global Country Sample," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 815-836.
    7. J. Meekes & W.H.J. Hassink, 2016. "The role of the housing market in workers’ resilience to job displacement after firm bankruptcy," Working Papers 16-10, Utrecht School of Economics.
    8. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chen, Zhongfei, 2014. "The housing market in Beijing and delays in sales: A fractional polynomial survival model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 296-300.
    9. Nicholas Apergis, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Housing Prices: Fresh Evidence from a Global Country Sample," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 189-210.
    10. Jie Chen & Wei Wang & Yan Song, 2023. "Economic Potential Gain, Income Uncertainty, and Rural Migrants’ Urban Homeownership: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, April.

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