[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v200y2020ics0951832019307896.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A risk model of passenger ship fire safety and its application

Author

Listed:
  • Spyrou, Kostas J.
  • Koromila, Ioanna A.
Abstract
A risk model for assessing a passenger ship's fire safety at the design stage is proposed. Current maritime legislation requires, in principle, compliance with prescriptive regulations of fire prevention, protection and extinction. In a forward step, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) permitted acceptance of fire-safety-equivalent designs on the basis of performance-based assessment procedures. However, the inherent randomness of onboard fire events has not yet been systematically accounted. In this respect, procedures currently applied for fire safety evaluation during ship design, lag behind those applied for the avoidance of ship capsize due to watertight compartments’ flooding, where a probabilistic approach has been in place since long ago. The current work is intended to enhance the probabilistic character of performance-based ship fire assessments; and to establish a consistent risk calculation framework which could also serve in the future as the backbone model of a more integrated approach to ship risk calculation. The core of the proposed model is a risk function combining the probability of ignition, the reliability of the installed suppression systems, and the prediction of the loss given a fire's growth. Design details, such as the space layout and the interior design materials, are fully taken into account. The estimation of the loss is realized by high fidelity simulations. The loss appears in the form of a distribution of fatalities. Several practical risk indices are extracted from the risk function, reflecting potential designer preferences. For demonstrating the practicality of the proposed risk model, a part of a cruise ship's fire zone, accommodating public spaces, is considered. The fire safety performance of the design is evaluated by using the extracted risk indices whose consistency in reflecting the safety level are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Spyrou, Kostas J. & Koromila, Ioanna A., 2020. "A risk model of passenger ship fire safety and its application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:200:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019307896
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.106937
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832019307896
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.106937?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flage, Roger & Aven, Terje & Berner, Christine L., 2018. "A comparison between a probability bounds analysis and a subjective probability approach to express epistemic uncertainties in a risk assessment context – A simple illustrative example," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 1-10.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruponen, Pekka & Montewka, Jakub & Tompuri, Markus & Manderbacka, Teemu & Hirdaris, Spyros, 2022. "A framework for onboard assessment and monitoring of flooding risk due to open watertight doors for passenger ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Dinesh, A. & Benson, C.M. & Holborn, P.G. & Sampath, S. & Xiong, Y., 2020. "Performance evaluation of nitrogen for fire safety application in aircraft," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. Dorota Łozowicka, 2021. "The design of the arrangement of evacuation routes on a passenger ship using the method of genetic algorithms," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Weiliang Qiao & Yang Liu & Xiaoxue Ma & He Lan, 2021. "Cognitive Gap and Correlation of Safety-I and Safety-II: A Case of Maritime Shipping Safety Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Wang, Xinjian & Xia, Guoqing & Zhao, Jian & Wang, Jin & Yang, Zaili & Loughney, Sean & Fang, Siming & Zhang, Shukai & Xing, Yongheng & Liu, Zhengjiang, 2023. "A novel method for the risk assessment of human evacuation from cruise ships in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    6. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    7. Song, Chengcheng & Shao, Quan & Zhu, Pei & Dong, Min & Yu, Wenfei, 2023. "An emergency aircraft evacuation simulation considering passenger overtaking and luggage retrieval," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    8. Mauro, Francesco & Vassalos, Dracos & Paterson, Donald, 2022. "Critical damages identification in a multi-level damage stability assessment framework for passenger ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    9. Li, Yapeng & Xiao, Qin & Gu, Jiayang & Cai, Wei & Hu, Min, 2024. "Modeling and solving Passenger ship evacuation arrangement problem," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Li, Weijun & Sun, Qiqi & Zhang, Jiwang & Zhang, Laibin, 2024. "Quantitative risk assessment of industrial hot work using Adaptive Bow Tie and Petri Nets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    3. Wei Wang & Francesco Di Maio & Enrico Zio, 2019. "Adversarial Risk Analysis to Allocate Optimal Defense Resources for Protecting Cyber–Physical Systems from Cyber Attacks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(12), pages 2766-2785, December.
    4. Ajenjo, Antoine & Ardillon, Emmanuel & Chabridon, Vincent & Cogan, Scott & Sadoulet-Reboul, Emeline, 2023. "Robustness evaluation of the reliability of penstocks combining line sampling and neural networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    5. Maria-Teresa Bosch-Badia & Joan Montllor-Serrats & Maria-Antonia Tarrazon-Rodon, 2020. "Risk Analysis through the Half-Normal Distribution," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-27, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:200:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019307896. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.