[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v27y2013icp318-329.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Po-Chin
  • Liu, Shiao-Yen
  • Pan, Sheng-Chieh
Abstract
This paper investigates the threshold effects on the impacts of fundamentals (i.e., incomes, exchange rates, oil prices, and import-weighted distances) on China's trade balances with the G7 countries between 1975 and 2010 by using a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model with the transition variable of lagged real interest rate differential. The empirical results show that the relationship between the trade balance and the fundamentals is rather nonlinear, changing over time and across countries depending on the lagged real interest rate differential during the different regimes. Moreover, China's bilateral trade balance responds significantly to the changes in relative real income differentials, real oil prices, and import-weighted distance. If the Federal Reserve adopts an expansionary monetary policy in the near future, China would still accumulate higher bilateral trade surpluses from most of the G7 countries, as long as the following situations exist: an increase in China's relative real per capita income, a slow increase in real oil price, and a stable RMB (the Chinese currency) exchange rate system.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:318-329
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2012.10.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105905601200127X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2012.10.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    2. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    3. Willem Thorbecke, 2011. "The Effect Of Exchange Rate Changes On Trade In East Asia," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 85-102.
    4. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    5. Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin, 2006. "Threshold Effects in the Public Capital Productivity: an International Panel Smooth Transition Approach," Post-Print halshs-00257487, HAL.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
    7. Mr. Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Azim M Sadikov & Mr. Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 2004/009, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 1-66.
    10. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe, "undated". "Trade Theory and Trade Facts," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv129, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    11. Leamer, Edward E. & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "International trade theory: The evidence," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1339-1394, Elsevier.
    12. repec:bla:ecorec:v:70:y:1994:i:209:p:204-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Guloglu, Bulent, 2010. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1144-1155, September.
    14. David W. R. Gruen & Jenny Wilkinson, 1994. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate–Is it Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-219, June.
    15. Sophie B鲥au & Antonia López Villavicencio & Val鲩e Mignon, 2012. "Currency misalignments and growth: a new look using nonlinear panel data methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(27), pages 3503-3511, September.
    16. Hsiao, Yu-Ming & Pan, Sheng-Chieh & Wu, Po-Chin, 2012. "Does the central bank's intervention benefit trade balance? Empirical evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 130-139.
    17. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
    18. Giavazzi, Francesco & Blanchard, Olivier & Sá, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Ibarra, Raul & Trupkin, Danilo R., 2016. "Reexamining the relationship between inflation and growth: Do institutions matter in developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 332-351.
    20. Cheng, Che-Hui & Wu, Po-Chin, 2013. "Nonlinear earnings persistence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 156-168.
    21. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
    22. Dixit, Avinash, 1984. "International Trade Policy for Oligopolistic Industries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(376a), pages 1-16, Supplemen.
    23. Lee, Jaewoo & Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "Current account and real exchange rate dynamics in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 257-274, March.
    24. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    25. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    26. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    27. Keith Head & John Ries, 2004. "Exporting and FDI as Alternative Strategies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(3), pages 409-423, Autumn.
    28. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2001. "The growth of world trade: tariffs, transport costs, and income similarity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-27, February.
    29. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 639-649, 04/05.
    30. Helga Kristjánsdóttir, 2005. "A Gravity Model for Exports from Iceland," CAM Working Papers 2005-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
    31. Verheyen, Florian, 2012. "Bilateral exports from euro zone countries to the US — Does exchange rate variability play a role?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 97-108.
    32. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
    33. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
    34. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "Effects of monetary policy shocks on the trade balance in small open European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 197-203, May.
    35. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    36. Debasri Mukherjee & Susan Pozo, 2011. "Exchange-rate volatility and trade: a semiparametric approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(13), pages 1617-1627.
    37. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
    38. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "External Imbalances in an Advanced, Commodity-Exporting Country: The Case of New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 12620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    40. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Po-Chin Wu & Chung-Chih Lee, 2018. "The non-linear impact of monetary policy on international reserves: macroeconomic variables nexus," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 165-185, February.
    2. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    3. Shiao-Yen Liu & Po-Chin Wu & Tsai-Yuan Huang, 2018. "Nonlinear Causality between Education and Health: the Role of Human Development Index," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 761-777, September.
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Industry trade and exchange-rate fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. and Chile," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 619-626.
    5. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Ming-Fang Yang, 2017. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Role of National Debt," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Narayan, Seema & Nguyen, Tri Tung, 2016. "Does the trade gravity model depend on trading partners? Some evidence from Vietnam and her 54 trading partners," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 220-237.
    7. Tsai-Yuan Huang & Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu, 2017. "Defense–Growth Causality: Considerations of Regime-Switching and Time- and Country-Varying Effects," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 568-584, September.
    8. Po-Chin Wu & Hsiao & I-Chung & Tsai & Meng-Hua, 2018. "Nonlinear Effect of Business Cycle on Lottery Sales Stability," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 1-3.
    9. Esra Alp Coskun & Nicholas Apergis & Yener Coskun, 2022. "Threshold effects of housing affordability and financial development on the house price‐consumption nexus," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1785-1806, April.
    10. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Zhai, Rui-Xiang, 2018. "Nonlinear impacts of operating risk and demand management policy on banks’ performance: The role of leading indicator," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 40-53.
    11. Seghir, Majda & Damette, Olivier, 2013. "Natural resource curse: a non linear approach in a panel of oil exporting countries," MPRA Paper 51604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles & Šević, Aleksandar, 2022. "Green bond market and Sentiment: Is there a switching Behaviour?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 520-527.
    13. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Kou-Bau Wang, 2017. "Does Unemployment Matter for Lottery Sales and their Persistence? A New Estimation Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 581-592, January.
    14. Deimante Blavasciunaite & Lina Garsviene & Kristina Matuzeviciute, 2020. "Trade Balance Effects on Economic Growth: Evidence from European Union Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    15. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Sheng-Chieh Pan, 2014. "Does Misery Index Matter for the Persistence of Health Spending? Evidence from OECD Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 893-910, September.
    16. Po-Chin Wu & Sheng-Chieh Pan & Xue-Ling Tai, 2015. "Non-linearity, persistence and spillover effects in stock returns: the role of the volatility index," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 597-613, August.
    17. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Sun, Chia-Hung D., 2016. "The role of savings rate in exchange rate and trade imbalance nexus: Cross-countries evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 1017-1025.
    18. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Chen, Che-Ying, 2016. "Re-examining risk premiums in the Fama–French model: The role of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 154-171.
    19. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Hsiao, Juei-Ming & Huang, Tsai-Yuan, 2016. "Nonlinear and time-varying growth-tourism causality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 45-59.
    20. Erdogan, Ayse M., 2014. "Bilateral trade and the environment: A general equilibrium model based on new trade theory," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 52-71.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Po-Chin Wu & Sheng-Chieh Pan & Xue-Ling Tai, 2015. "Non-linearity, persistence and spillover effects in stock returns: the role of the volatility index," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 597-613, August.
    2. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Kou-Bau Wang, 2017. "Does Unemployment Matter for Lottery Sales and their Persistence? A New Estimation Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 581-592, January.
    3. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    4. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
    5. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Sheng-Chieh Pan, 2014. "Nonlinear relationship between health care expenditure and its determinants: a panel smooth transition regression model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 713-729, November.
    6. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "On Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Is Emerging Asia Different?," Working Papers 2009-38, CEPII research center.
    7. Zhang, Mingming & Zhang, Shichang & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Dequn, 2021. "Effects of trade openness on renewable energy consumption in OECD countries: New insights from panel smooth transition regression modelling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2011. "Electricity demand elasticities and temperature: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression with instrumental variable approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 896-902, September.
    9. Po-Chin Wu & Chung-Chih Lee, 2018. "The non-linear impact of monetary policy on international reserves: macroeconomic variables nexus," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 165-185, February.
    10. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    11. Dennis Novy, 2013. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs With Panel Data," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 101-121, January.
    12. Gabriel J Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 4, pages 115-148, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Tsai-Yuan Huang & Po-Chin Wu & Ching-Wen Yan, 2014. "Revisiting the redistribution effects of intergovernmental fiscal transfers: evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 341-359, December.
    14. Mariko Klasing & Petros Milionis & Robert Zymek, 2015. "Gravity across Space and Time," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 265, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    15. Daniel J. Henderson & Daniel L. Millimet, 2008. "Is gravity linear?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 137-172.
    16. Cafiso, Gianluca, 2007. "The Geographic Space in International Trade: from Gravity to New Economic Geography," MPRA Paper 20269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Lena Dr䧥r & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
    18. Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Preferential trade agreements and their role in world trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 199-222, June.
    19. Gert-Jan M. Linders & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Peter Nijkamp, 2011. "Persistent Distance Decay Effects in International Trade," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume II, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Sheng-Chieh Pan, 2014. "Does Misery Index Matter for the Persistence of Health Spending? Evidence from OECD Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 893-910, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:318-329. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.