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Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss

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  • Baghestani, Hamid
  • Khallaf, Ashraf
Abstract
This study evaluates the Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in corporate profits for 1984–2004. These forecasts are both rational and directionally accurate but suggest different loss structures. The Federal Reserve forecasts tend to significantly under-predict and imply asymmetric loss. The private forecasts, however, are free of such bias, suggesting symmetric loss. Given that the Federal Reserve forecasts are made to help with policymaking, our findings point to the Fed's cautiousness not to incorrectly predict the downward moves in growth in corporate profits. The private forecasts are made by experts who (with a strong profit-motivated interest) attempt to generate financial gain and thus predict the upward moves as accurately as the downward moves.

Suggested Citation

  • Baghestani, Hamid & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2012. "Predictions of growth in U.S. corporate profits: Asymmetric vs. symmetric loss," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 222-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:22:y:2012:i:1:p:222-229
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2011.09.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Mohsni, Sana, 2013. "Growth of aggregate corporate earnings and cash-flows: Persistence and determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 13-23.
    2. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FOMC; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Unbiasedness; Directional forecast accuracy; Loss structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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