[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v50y2010i4p548-558.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adverse selection and reputation in a world of cheap talk

Author

Listed:
  • Depken II, Craig A.
  • Zhang, Ying
Abstract
Internet message boards are inherently a world of cheap talk due to the anonymity of message authors. This paper investigates whether a pecuniary reputation system influences the adverse selection problem endemic to message boards. First, we find evidence that authors with high reputation scores are less likely to voluntarily offer a buy-hold-sell sentiment in a particular message. Second, we find that authors with no reputation at stake tend to be more bearish with their sentiment but, after controlling for selection, authors with more reputation at stake tend to be bullish in their sentiment. Third, we find that high-reputation authors tend to offer more accurate sentiments on the day their message was posted, which suggests day-trading behavior by authors, but that higher-reputation authors are no more accurate than others after the day of posting. Our results suggest that reputation, coupled with a small pecuniary reward system, can materially influence the adverse selection problem in a world of cheap talk.

Suggested Citation

  • Depken II, Craig A. & Zhang, Ying, 2010. "Adverse selection and reputation in a world of cheap talk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 548-558, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:50:y:2010:i:4:p:548-558
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062-9769(10)00047-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sanjiv R. Das & Mike Y. Chen, 2007. "Yahoo! for Amazon: Sentiment Extraction from Small Talk on the Web," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1375-1388, September.
    2. Willard T. Carleton & Carl R. Chen & Thomas I. Steiner, 1998. "Optimism Biases among Brokerage and Non-Brokerage Firms' Equity Recommendations: Agency Costs in the Investment Industry," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(1), Spring.
    3. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Short-sale constraints and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 207-239.
    4. Andrew R. Jackson, 2005. "Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 673-717, April.
    5. Peter M. DeMarzo & Dimitri Vayanos & Jeffrey Zwiebel, 2003. "Persuasion Bias, Social Influence, and Unidimensional Opinions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 909-968.
    6. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-686.
    7. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, April.
    8. Daniel Houser & John Wooders, 2006. "Reputation in Auctions: Theory, and Evidence from eBay," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 353-369, June.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1259-1294 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1083-1124 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    12. Stickel, Scott E, 1992. "Reputation and Performance among Security Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1811-1836, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yongjie & An, Yahui & Feng, Xu & Jin, Xi, 2017. "Celebrities and ordinaries in social networks: Who knows more information?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 153-161.
    2. Xiong Xiong & Chunchun Luo & Ye Zhang & Shen Lin, 2019. "Do stock bulletin board systems (BBS) contain useful information? A viewpoint of interaction between BBS quality and predicting ability," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1385-1411, March.
    3. Bowden, James & Gemayel, Roland, 2022. "Sentiment and trading decisions in an ambiguous environment: A study on cryptocurrency traders," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ying Zhang & Peggy Swanson, 2010. "Are day traders bias free?—evidence from internet stock message boards," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(1), pages 96-112, January.
    2. AltInkIlIç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S., 2009. "On the information role of stock recommendation revisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 17-36, October.
    3. Christopher N. Avery & Judith A. Chevalier & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2016. "The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1363-1381.
    4. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher J. Malloy, 2012. "Hiring Cheerleaders: Board Appointments of "Independent" Directors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(6), pages 1039-1058, June.
    5. Mola, Simona & Guidolin, Massimo, 2009. "Affiliated mutual funds and analyst optimism," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 108-137, July.
    6. Galanti, Sébastien & Vaubourg, Anne Gaël, 2017. "Optimism bias in financial analysts' earnings forecasts: Do commissions sharing agreements reduce conflicts of interest?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 325-337.
    7. Mehran, Hamid & Stulz, Rene M., 2007. "The economics of conflicts of interest in financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 267-296, August.
    8. Zhang, Chao & Shrider, David G. & Han, Dun & Wu, Yanran, 2022. "Accurate forecasts attract clients; Biased forecasts keep them happy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Armen Hovakimian & Ekkachai Saenyasiri, 2014. "US Analyst Regulation and the Earnings Forecast Bias around the World," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 435-461, June.
    10. Xiaojing Meng, 2015. "Analyst Reputation, Communication, and Information Acquisition," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 119-173, March.
    11. Cheolwoo Lee, 2013. "Analyst firm parent–subsidiary relationship and conflict of interest: evidence from IPO recommendations," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(3), pages 763-789, September.
    12. Mingsheng Li & Xin Zhao, 2008. "Analyst Reputation, Dealer Affiliation, And Market Making," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 301-332, December.
    13. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    14. Johan Sulaeman & Kelsey D. Wei, 2019. "Sell-Side Analysts and Stock Mispricing: Evidence from Mutual Fund Flow-Driven Trading Pressure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5427-5448, November.
    15. Miwa, Kotaro, 2022. "The informational role of analysts’ textual statements," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Mei-Chen Lin & J. Jimmy Yang, 2023. "Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1057-1091, October.
    17. Anup Agrawal & Mark A. Chen, 2008. "Do Analyst Conflicts Matter? Evidence from Stock Recommendations," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 503-537, August.
    18. Chune Young Chung & Euisup Lee & Chang-Gyun Park, 2020. "Do Ownership Ties Increase the Optimistic Bias of Analysts’ Earnings Estimates? Evidence from Corporate Financing in the Korean Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-20, June.
    19. Chatalova, Natalia & How, Janice C.Y. & Verhoeven, Peter, 2016. "Analyst coverage and IPO management forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 263-277.
    20. Wu, Yanran & Liu, Tingting & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts: Does investor sentiment matter in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 147-163.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:50:y:2010:i:4:p:548-558. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.